Wimbledon 2013 – Fourth Round

Make the most of today as it’s the last day where we have plenty of matches on. The weather looks great so we should have an excellent day’s tennis.

 

Flipkens looks too short at 1.37 against Pennetta. The Italian veteran has shown some superb tennis in this tournament but an obvious concern is her MTO against Cornet. She was feeling ill and lost the opening set 6-0. She did come back strongly at the start of the second set but lost a 5-1 lead to finally take the set in the tie break.

Flipkens has been serving well and has shown good touch on the grass but I want at least 1.70 before backing her . We may not get that high though as I think the price has factored in Pennetta’s health issue.

Update: Pennetta looked healthy enough and came close to taking the opening set. She was broken serving for it.

Flipkens won 7-6, 6-3.

 

Melzer has performed well in his last Wimbledon. If he was being honest when he said he was just looking to survive the first round then he must be  satisfied with a  4th round place.

Janowicz started slowly against Almagro but then dominated the Spaniard taking the match in straight sets.

Melzer has a lot of experience and I expect him to serve and volley a lot today. I doubt that it will be enough though as Janowicz returns serve fairly well and really goes for the second serve returns. Slams don’t offer much value at SP in the men’s tournament and 1.27 is way too low. If we can get 1.50+ we are in value territory. Janowicz to win in 3 or perhaps 4 sets.

Update: In fact it was 5 sets!

Janowicz won 3-6, 7-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.

 

Kvitova hasn’t managed a straight sets win yet and she could have a battle on her hands again today.  Against Makarova in the last round she hit 5 double faults and won just 9 from 31 points on her second serve (29%). She actually won fewer points over all. Her unforced error count was big at 26 but that’s the way she plays. Big hits and they either land in or land outside…..the stadium.

Suarez Navarro has had a couple of shocking starts recently but came back strongly in the second  set.  Kvitova doesn’t lose many opening sets but more often than not she fades in the second so we have a recipe for another 3 setter today.

The head to heads are 4-1 to Kvitova so she appears to enjoy this match up more than Carla and I expect that to move to 5-1 after this match.  1.32 is a horrible opening price but if things go as I expect that that won’t go a lot higher in the opening set.

Update: Women can’t follow recipes.

Kvitova won 7-6, 6-3.

 

In my Wimbledon preview I predicted that Laura Robson would make the Quarter finals if she could get past Kirilenko in the first round.  She came so close to crashing out in the last match against Erakovic but found her inspiration as Erakovic was serving for the match. Robson has had 3 very different matches so far. The first round was unbelievable tennis to destroy Kirilenko. A nervous start in the second round on Centre Court but once she settled she breezed past Duque Marino and the Houdini act in the last round.

Now she has a problem. One that Andy Murray has faced in the past and still faces now. Robson has shown that she can play well on this stage and that she can get wins that weren’t expected. The problem for her is that the win IS now expected. I would say the percentage of the spectators at Wimbledon who don’t usually watch tennis is likely to be higher than at any of the other Slams. They now expect her to cruise to the final.

Kanepi might have something to say about that as her form so far has been excellent. To be fair she has only really been tested once which was against Kerber in the second round but she played more consistently than we have seen from her lately.

Robson is the higher ranked player but Kanepi has been as high as 15 in the world.

I feel if Robson makes a slow start ( and she has shown nerves in her last 2 matches) then the tension in the crowd could hurt her. On the other hand if she can come out hitting big forehands and huge serves then the noise of the crowd could be unsettling for Kanepi who isn’t the most mentally stable player on the tour.

I think the slow start is more likely. The weight of expectation is huge and she is still only 19. A fourth round exit is a satisfactory tournament for her and she may start telling herself that if the going gets tough.

I’d love to see Robson make the quarter finals but I have to give the edge to Kanepi. 3 sets, lots of swings and will be a great match.

Update: Robson had her chances and occasionally Kanepi looked like she was about to fall apart. She played the big points well.

Kanepi won 7-6, 7-5.

 

In other matches I expect Stephens to beat Puig although she will trade higher than 1.35. Radwanska will be too consistent for Pironkova. Murray will be fine against Youzhny  as will Djokovic against Haas beat him already this season and I’d be amazed if we don’t get a higher price on Djokovic.

Ferrer had a real scare against Dolgopolov and faces an in form Dodig. It won’t be straight sets for Ferrer. He choked 3 times in the first 2 sets when serving for the set against Dolgopolov before finally winning in 5 sets as Dolgopolov lost out in the mental battle. I think it will be similar today as Dodig will soon doubt his ability to get the win.

Update: All of the above expected winners did so.

I have avoided matches covered in the Betting Tips.

    Trading Guide

2 thoughts on “Wimbledon 2013 – Fourth Round”

  1. Kvitova and Flipkens look like good matches where we can find some opportunities.

    Do you think Ferrer has a good chance to prevail against Dodig? It seems like he’s been on the brink of elimination in every match so far, but there managed to scrape through Dolgopolov…

    Dodig has been faring pretty well in this tournament, but I’m not sure he can beat Ferrer. Any thoughts on this?

    Thanks

    1. Dodig will lose the match in his mind. When put under pressure he often folds even when playing well.

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