Wimbledon 2014 – Week 1, Day 5

A few matches were either delayed or postponed until today. Granollers and Giraldo are into a 5th set. I’d have preferred that to have finished last night as Giraldo had the momentum and is one of my Shark Tips selections. I’m not sure the delay helps him but I thought the same about Garcia against Errani earlier this week.

Lopez/Pavic, Halep/Tsurenko¬†and Bencic/Duval didn’t get on court yesterday.

 

ATP, 11:30Fognini has made slow starts to both his matches so far. He started those as strong favourite. Today he is a 3.80 underdog against Anderson. Will that change his mind set at th e start of this one?

Their head to heads are 1-1 with Fognini, not surprisingly, winning on clay and Anderson winning on the Queens Club grass in 2 tight sets in 2009.

Anderson starts at 1.34 but if Fognini is in the mood he can push that a lot higher. I won’t get involved at the start as Fognini makes more slow starts than fast ones but certainly if I can lay Anderson early below 1.20 it has to be worth a go for limited risk.

 

WTA – 11:30Makarova has fallen into a habit of making slow starts recently. With the way Garcia has been playing that could mean we have some early value on Garcia.

We can try a lay at the start and if we do get an early break for Garcia I think switching the profit to Makarova is the way to go.

Both players are well suited to the grass but I am going with Makarova’s greater experience on the surface.

 

WTA, 13:00Li Na hasn’t looked totally comfortable this week and is up against Zahlavova Strycova who is on a great run on the grass. She reached the final last week and I keep thinking she has to break down soon as she has an achilles problem but she just keeps going.

Whilst it would be a surprise if BZS was to win the match I think an early lay on Li could give us a decent trade. Similar to the Makarova match I will switch my green to Li if she gets broken.

 

WTA, 14:00Jovanovski beat Azarenka in the last round. Azarenka is making a slow return after injury. Smitkova beat Vandeweghe in her last match. That result is probably due to Vandeweghe winning the title last week and her energy levels, both mental and physical, will have been low.

Before this week Jovanovski had lost her last 6 matches though she was only favourite in one of them.

Tereza Smitkova has been enjoying some success on the ITF circuit and has had a few wins over higher ranked opposition. She has already won 5 matches to reach this stage with 3 wins in qualifying and main draw wins over Hsieh and Vandeweghe.

I think this will be closer than the market makers think. If Jovanovski can gain some confidence from her Azarenka win then she has the greater experience and could control the match. However we haven’t seen anything like her best tennis for quite a while and I expect her to struggle today.

I’m not laying her at 1.65 though. If I can lay her under 1.40 in the early games I will do so. Smitkova has a great chance to at least take a set.

 

ATP, 17:00Berdych leads the head to heads 5-2 over Cilic. However one of Cilic’s wins was their only meeting on grass. That was at Queens Club last season.

Berdych had an MTO in his match with Tomic. He has a wrist injury which is being managed with strapping but that wasn’t working for him. He was given pain killers. He has obviously had time to improve on the strapping before this match but it could still be an issue.

Berdych started the season really well but by his own high standards the latter part of the season hasn’t been as good. He has still managed a final and 3 quarter finals since his bout of gastroenteritis in March. Two of those quarter finals were at the French open and Queens Club.

Cilic also started the season exceptionally well but has only been past the second round twice since March.

Berdych starts at 1.58 which isn’t an awful price given that Cilic has lost his last 4 matches against top 10 opposition including Berdych himself in Rotterdam. The Berdych wrist is a concern although he got through ok against Tomic and as I said above he has had time to improve on the strapping.

Hopefully we can get a price above 1.80 in the early games without a break of serve as I will back Berdych above that level.

 

 

 

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