Wimbledon Men's semis

Haas v Federer

Haas gave Fed a fright in their last match, taking the first 2 sets and having break points in the 3rd  but you need to bear in mind that was on clay. Whilst Nadal is the king of clay ( when he’s fit ) Fed, for me, is king of grass. Haas is in top form and his confidence will have been boosted by beating Djokovic in the quarter final. He is a serve vollyer, a rare breed these days but Fed loves to have a target at the net so expect him to pick out his passing shots almost at will.

Fed is at 1.09 on Betfair. Haas has to make an imression in the first set or he is in danger of being whitewashed. He has the ability to take the first  set or at least take it to a tie break and I expect Fed’s price to move out. However if Federer manages to get an early break this could be over quite quickly.

Fed to win in 3 or 4 sets. Best chance for a trade is to lay Fed from the start and hope for 10 ticks profit.

Update: Can anyone beat Fed in this form? 3 straight sets and even though the first 2 were close (7-6, 7-5) Haas never looked like winning. Fed’s name on the trophy already!

Roddick v Murray

The match to watch today. I think we all want to see Murray in the final but Roddick won’t make it easy for him. Murray is one of the best receivers of serve in the game and Roddick has one of the best serves. I expect Murray to pressure the serve, especially the second serve and the first set could be all down to Roddick’s first serve percentage.

I don’t see this going to 5 sets and I think Rodick will feel the effects of his last 5 setter against Hewitt.

15-40 may bring small returns. Murray is 1.34 on the market. That will move out to perhaps 1.45 if the first set goes with serve.

Murray to win in 4 sets.

Update: Once again my last sentence lets me down! As I said it was down to first serve percentage in the first 2 or 3 sets. Roddick was at around 84% in the first while Murray was about 45%. Simply not good enough. Murray’s serve kicked in later in the match but when he went 2 sets to 1 down his body language wasn’t good. He went out in the end to a tie break in the 4th set which went close. He’s come a long way in the last 12 to 18 months. Just needs to improve his attitude a little more ( he’s only 22 for gods sake! ). No doubt he will win several Grand Slam events in the future.

Would have been a great occassion if he had reached the final but it is Roddick’s turn to lose to Fed in the final.

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