Start delayed due to rain.
Keys 2.80, Barty 1.55
Head to heads are 1-1. They last met in a Fed Cup match in February this year in America. Barty won on an indoor hard court in 2 sets. Keys won on clay at the French Open in 2017 in straight sets.
Overall results favour Barty in the last 12 months and also in 2019. Clay results are strong for both players and give a small advantage to Keys. Stats for the tournament favour Barty.
Barty has lost just 1 set so far. That was against Serena slayer Kenin in the last round. Danielle Collins gave her a tough opening set in the second round. Barty has ended all her matches strongly.
Keys has dropped 2 sets so far. She dropped those sets to players that she should have been beating in straight sets although I had expected her third round match with Blinkova to be tough. She won that 6-4 in the third set. She is usually vulnerable in the second set if she wins the first.
I favour Barty to win but she is priced too low. We have some value on Keys and I think we will see 3 sets. Lay Barty around 1.40 and remove at least some of the liability at 1.80. Lay the set 1 winner.