Ekaterina Alexandrova 2.54, Petra Kvitova 1.63
They have met just once which was at the Australian Open in January. Kvitova won on a hard court in 2 easy sets.
Slightly better overall results for Kvitova in the last year. Alexandrova has much better indoor results in the same period.
Kvitova did not look at her best in the last round. She twice went a break behind in the opening set against Alison Van Uytvanck. Van Uytvanck served for the set and had a set point but was broken. Kvitova took the set in a very one sided tie break. In the second set Kvitova broke Van Uytvanck’s serve but then lost the next 6 games. In the deciding set Kvitova was broken at the start but broke her opponent’s serve 3 times to take the match.
Alexandrova won 17 of her 20 indoor matches in the last 12 months. She won 41 of her last 50. In the last round she started very quickly against last year’s finalist Donna Vekic. She won the set with 3 breaks of serve. The second set was a messy one. The first 4 games were breaks of serve. Vekic served for the set at 5-4 but was broken. A very common pattern in WTA matches is that if a player is broken serving at 5-4 they usually lose the set 5-7. We saw that pattern in this set.
We have some value on Alexandrova and I think we see 3 sets. Lay Kvitova around 1.35 and remove some or all liability at 1.70. Lay the set 1 winner. Despite the result of their last match I think Alexandrova has a great chance today.
Update: Kvitova withdrew before the match!