Stephens 1.69, Sevastova 2.42
This will be their first meeting.
On hard courts Stephens’ recent form has been much stronger. She has won 8 of her last 10 and 12 of 15 this season. Admittedly her season started very late due to injury but no one can deny she has played some excellent tennis. She beat Goerges in 3 sets in the last round. She was broke just once in 3 sets. Her serve has been reasonably reliable. Her return game was particularly strong in the second and third rounds.
Sevastova is also in decent form with 7 wins from her last 10. She beat Sharapova in 3 sets in the last round. Her 2nd serve looked a little vulnerable but she was only broken 3 times in 3 sets. She came through the first 3 rounds without dropping a set. She faced 27 breakpoints in those 3 matches
I favour Stephens to win but it is likely to be in 3 sets. Ideally, wait for her to be broken before backing. If it doesn’t look likely I would take 1.85
Update: Stephens was broken in the first game of the match. She immediately broke back and went on to take the set. Sevastova levelled the match and took a 3-1 lead in the deciding set. Stephens broke back and won the set in a tie break.
Stephens won 6-3, 3-6, 7-6.