Muguruza 2.04, Halep 1.95
Muguruza leads their previous meetings 2-1. Their last match was in April 2015 on clay in Stuttgart. Halep won in 3 sets after Muguruza took set 1. Muguruza’s last win was on an indoor hard court in a Fed Cup tie in Romania in February 2015. She won in straight sets. In September 2014 she won in 3 sets on a hard court in Wuhan. .
Slightly better overall results for Halep this year though Muguruza’s ROI is higher. Hard court results this season favour Muguruza.
Muguruza played an excellent match to beat Pliskova in straight sets in the semi final. She faced just 3 break points which she saved. Both Kuznetsova and Keys had taken her to 3 sets in previous rounds but she was more focused against the world number 1.
Halep lost just 3 games to Stephens in her semi final. She didn’t face a single break point. That was her easiest win of the week although she has not lost a set so far. She has faced a lot of breaks points though and faced 17 against Konta (broken 4 times).
We have a good chance of 3 sets and a little value on Muguruza as underdog. I favour the Spaniard to take the title.Lay whoever breaks first as I think we will get a few price swings.
Update: Muguruza won easily in 2 sets. She lost just 1 game. Another very poor final from Halep