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Getting the Most from the Daily Trading Advice Emails

Often there are a LOT of matches to cover so I try to be as concise as possible. Obviously if I am TOO concise people can miss some of the info thats included.

Here is a list of things that could be included with a short explanation just in case the meaning isn’t clear. I was going to do this as a video blog but thought it might be a little confusing and a written post can more easily be referred to later.

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OC Predict:

I download the day’s matches using On Court software. I have entered my own settings and the software gives an over all prediction for the match but I don’t always take much notice of this figure.  I didn’t used to leave this figure in but forgot to remove it a couple of times and was asked by a few people to leave it in as they DID find it useful.

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WaS:

This shows the selection from my Wins a Set List.  Pretty straight forward. “X” marks the selection but note that if it shows as “X.”  (x dot)  that means I have over ridden the selection given by my automated rules.

These selection can be useful to indicate who will start the match best in closely priced matches. Alternatively, if the selected player loses set 1 we can lay the set winner in set 2. Then remove liability if our player takes a break lead in set 2.

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Rank and Surface Rank are self explanatory.

Pin shows the Pinnacle price so it can be compared with the Betfair price and my own price for the match.

BF shows the Betfair price at the time I compile the info. if the price moves significantly throughout the morning I try to update these as i add my comments.

TS:

This is my opinion of what I would have expected the price to be.  It factors in a lot of things including my  pricing model, injury concerns, fatigue concerns and my personal experience.

This is useful for spotting value if the TS price is compared to the actual BF price.

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Comments:

Here I give all other info that I see as relevant. I show their most recent meeting including how many sets they played. Note if I write “straight sets” then the match was best of 5 sets. If I wrote “3 sets” for this one it would give a false impression of it being a close match. In the same way if I write ” 3 sets” then it was best of 3 sets.

In an attempt to keep the comments as short as I can I will not show great detail in the stats. I check a lot of statistics for each match and from those I build an opinion on how the match will go.  Remember I am also using the new Shark Tips selection process while building this opinion.

If I say a player is value then basically I mean that they are expected to trade lower than their start price.  That obviously doesn’t necessarily mean that they will win the match but that I expect them to perform more strongly than the market price suggests. If we get a decent price move in our favour then it is advisable to reduce or remove our liability.

I usually give my opinion of who will win the match but if I really don’t have a strong feeling towards either player then I will say so.

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I do this for every ATP and WTA match in the main draws.  I will occasionally cover qualifying rounds if the number of main draw matches is low but as liquidity is usually poor I see little point in doing this very often..

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Shark Tips Results for 2016 and looking forward to 2017

So the 2016 drew to a close last night with the Davis Cup final and the last of the Challenger tournaments.

The Shark Tips are straight betting picks. They brought a profit for the year but as I have mentioned in previous posts and also the video update the selection process has been over hauled by a discovery I made half way through the year.

The service returned 4 losing months and 7 winning months. By far the worst month was May with a loss of 21 units. The other 3 losing months were March (-1.73), April (-8.76) and June (-2.99).

By the end of June I was pretty pissed off to say the least with 4 consecutive negative months and had started looking for something to turn things in my favour.  To cut a long story short I found it. This was something that I had not even used in my trading research and to say that I am excited by the discovery is a huge understatement.

For the remaining 5 months of the season I played around with this to try to find ways to get the most from it. July to November brought a profit of over 47 units and 9.84% ROI.

The profit for the year was 27 units and just 2.51% ROI but I am looking forward to seeing how the new approach works for a full season in 2017. As I have said before I am going to be providing the picks FREE on the blog. There is no point testing it privately as I need to have the pressure of knowing people are placing real money on them.

You can download the results HERE.

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This new info is also helping my own trading and the research for the Daily Trading Advice email which provides info, picks and advice on EVERY main tour (main draw) match. When the main tour ends I move to the Challenger tour up to the end of November.

Yearly subscriptions for the Trading Advice Email are available via the banner on the left hand side of this page. That gives you an excellent £50 saving on the year!

 

If you  haven’t already done so please bookmark the blog and join me for what is going to be a very profitable season in 2017!

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Davis Cup Final 2016

13:00 – Cilic v Del Potro

Del Potro leads their previous meetings 8-2. He won their last 5 though they have not played since 2013.

Croatia lead the tie  2-1 going into the final day so Del Potro will be going

Del Potro needs to win today to keep Argentina in the tie.

Del Potro needs to win today to keep Argentina in the tie.

all out to get his country level. Karlovic was able to take a set from him on Friday so Cilic has to have a real chance to do the same.

Cilic started his match with Delbonis well and took the opening 2 sets but in the end needed 5 sets to get the win. He will feel under pressure to win this one but as underdog he has a huge task on his hands.

Back Del Potro if he faces break point.

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