WTA Rome, Fourth Round Predictions

These predictions are aimed at traders rather than punters. When assessing a match, I initially look for 2 things. Who do I think will win and how competitive will the other player be?
Use them for straight bets if you wish but please bear in mind that is not what they are intended for.

**For previous rounds, if predictions were correct, I have left them in blue. Corrections are in black.
The number in brackets is the confidence rating out of 10 from the Trading Tips email.

WTA Rome
WTA Rome
 
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Trading Tip – WTA Rome, Siegemund v Pliskova

Trading Tips

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
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The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Trading Tips download from 9th May

WTA Rome
Siegemund v Pliskova 1.94
Due to start at 6 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. most recent Jan 2020, hard, Pliskova in 2. Siegemund won on clay in 2017, 3 sets. Clay win %’s favour Pliskova.

Siegemund reached the 3rd round as lucky loser last year. 2 sets win over Bejlek as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Alexandrova in the 2nd round as underdog.
2nd round in Madrid 2026. 2nd round in Stuttgart 2026.

Pliskova had a 3 sets win over Maneiro in the 1st round. Tight 3 sets win over Cristian in the 2nd round.
She reached the Quarter finals in Madrid 2026. Quarter finals in Linz 2026.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Pliskova on serve.
Lay Siegemund around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Pliskova in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Pre match, Pliskova’s price moved from 1.94 to 1.84.

Pliskova served first and held to 30.
0-1

Siegemund faced a break point at 30-40. Pliskova’s price moved to 1.58. If I was going to lay Pliskova, I wanted a better price. I waited for a break. Siegemund saved the break point but faced another and was broken. I laid Pliskova at 1.46.
0-2

Pliskova faced a break point at 30-40. I removed some liability at 1.62. She saved the break point but faced another and was broken. I removed the rest of the liability at 1.78. I left the green on Pliskova.
1-2

Siegemund was broken again in the next game.
1-3

Pliskova held to 15. She then broke Siegemund again and then served out the set to 15.
1-4
1-5
1-6

Pliskova’s price hit 1.22 after the set.

Awful stats for Siegemund in that set. She won just 4 points on serve.

Set 1 stats


Siegemund served first in set 2. She was broken to 15. Laying a player who is a set and a break ahead is usually an excellent entry point. I needed to see if Siegemund could show some improvement before getting involved. I currently had a free bet on Pliskova.
0-1

Pliskova held to 0. Siegemund then held to 15. That was enough to tempt me in for a lay of Pliskova. It was risk free due to the profit from the first set. I laid Pliskova at 1.11.
0-2
1-2

Pliskova was broken to 15. I backed her at 1.23 using the same stake that I had used for the lay. This increased my free bet on Pliskova.
2-2

The next 2 games were holds. Pliskova had to save 2 break points in her service game.
3-2
3-3

Siegemund was broken to 15.
3-4

Pliskova held to 30.
3-5

Siegemund was serving to stay in the match. She saved 5 match points but recovered to hold.
4-5

Pliskova easily served out the set and the match.
4-6

Pliskova won 6-1, 6-4.

 
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