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Trading Tips 2nd May

Provence Challenger
Bergs v Tabilo 1.53
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Bergs 2-0. Most recent Sep 2025, hard, 3rd set tie break. 4 sets win on clay in May 2024. Clay win %’s favour Tabilo.

Bergs had a 2 sets win over Herbert in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Hijikata in the q final. 2 sets win over Tiffon in the semi final.
He reached the 3rd round in Monte Carlo 2025.

Tabilo needed 3 sets against Agut in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Buse in the q final. 3rd set tie break win over Quinn in the semi final.
He reached the 2nd round in Madrid 2026. 2nd round in Monte Carlo 2026. Quarter final in Santiago 2026. Final in Rio 2026. Quarter final in Buenos Aires 2026. CH final in Feb.

12 month CH stats favour Bergs on serve though this is his only CH tournament in that period. 12 month ATP stats favour Tabilo on serve. Stats for the tournament favour Bergs on serve.
Back Tabilo around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Tabilo in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Tabilo served first. The first 3 games were easy holds.
0-1
1-1
1-2

Bergs faced a break point at 30-40 but held.
2-2

The next 2 games were easy holds.
2-3
3-3

Tabilo faced 4 break points. They were never consecutive. His price moved to 1.91 on the 3rd break point and I placed a small back on Tabilo. He recovered to hold. I removed some of the liability at 1.61.
3-4

The next 2 games were easy holds.
4-4
4-5

Bergs was broken to 15 to give the set to Tabilo. I hedged at 1.19.
4-6

Stats for the set favoured Tabilo. Bergs had a low first serve percentage of 54%. Tabilo faced more break points.
Tabilo’s price was 1.18 after the set.

Tabilo served first in the second set. I laid him at 1.19. The first 4 games were holds with no break points.
0-1
1-1
1-2
2-2

Tabilo went behind 0-40. I backed Tabilo at 1.44 using the same that I had used for the lay. Tabilo was broken to 15
3-2

I now had green on Bergs and a larger green on Tabilo. Bergs saved a break point in the next game but then faced another and was broken.
3-3

Tabilo was broken to 15.
4-3.

Bergs faced a break point in the next game but held. The following 2 games were also holds and Bergs took the set.
5-3
5-4
6-4

I did not get involved in the third set. Tabilo took the set with a single break in the second game.

Tabilo won 6-4, 4-6, 6-3.

 

This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week. Sign up HERE
The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

Trading Tips 1st May

Ostrava Challenger
Sanchez-Izquierdo v Gentzsch 1.83
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Gentzsch.

Sanchez-Izquierdo had a 2 sets win as underdog in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Sachko as underdog in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Svrcina as huge underdog in the q final.
CH q finals in April and March. CH semi in Jan. 5 CH q finals in July and Aug.

Gentzsch had a 2 sets win as favourite in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Piros in the 2nd round as underdog. 3 sets win over Molleker in the q final.
CH final in March. CH semi in Sep.

12 month CH stats favour Gentzsch on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour him.
Decent chance of 3 sets.
Lay Sanchez-Izquierdo around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Gentzsch in 3 sets.