This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
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Download link: Trading Tips 5th August

WTA Toronto
Kostyuk 1.83 v Keys
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Keys 2-0. Most recent July 2024, grass, 2 sets. She won on grass in 2023, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Kostyuk.

Kostyuk reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as strong favourite.
Final in Brisbane 2026, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025.

Keys reached the Quarter final last season. Easy win over Ruzic in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025.

12 month stats and 2026 stats favour Kostyuk.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Keys around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Kostyuk in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: After yesterday’s live stream, I needed a break and never made it back to my desk!

I’ll apply my trading rules to this match to show how I would have traded it.

Kostyuk served first. The first 2 games were easy holds.
1-0
1-1

Kostyuk went 15-40 behind. I’d have placed a small back on Kostyuk as I favoured her to win. Kostyuk saved 3 break points and held.
2-1

The next 2 games were holds.
2-2
3-2

Keys went 15-40 behind. I’d have removed the liability to leave the profit on Kostyuk. It would have left a small free bet on Kostyuk. Keys saved 1 break point but was then broken.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds although Kostyuk faced 3 break points when serving for the set.
5-2
5-3
6-3

Stats for the set were actually better overall for Keys. She only faced 2 break points (broken once). Kostyuk faced 6 break points and saved them all.

Keys served first in the second set so I would have waited for her to have her service game. She was broken to 0. I would have laid Kostyuk which would either have been risk free or would have given me a small liability.
1-0

Kostyuk held to 30.
2-0

Keys was broken to 30. There wouldn’t be much point exiting at this stage of the match. I’d have left it to run, especially if the lay was risk free.
3-0

Kostyuk faced a break point but held serve.
4-0

Keys held after being taken to deuce 3 times. Kostyuk then faced 3 break points but held.
4-1
5-1

Keys was broken again.
6-1

Kostyuk won 6-3, 6-1. I can’t say I’m sorry that I missed this one!