This tip is taken from the Trading Tips service.
Every day, I research all WTA and ATP matches and write notes with stats, info and a trading plan for each match.
Get the Trading Tips emailed to you 7 days a week.

The link below is yesterday’s Trading Tips file as an example of what you get:

WTA US Open
Pegula 1.37 v Cirstea
Due to start at 10 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Pegula 3-1. Most recent Aug 2026, hard, Pegula in 3. She won on clay in 2021, 2 sets. She won indoors in 2013. Cirstea’s win was indoors in 2010.Hard win %’s favour Pegula.

Pegula reached the Semi final last year. Easy win over Ruse in the 1st round. Easy win over Kenin in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Fernandez in the 3rd round.
She reached the 4th Round in Toronto 2026, Final in Washington 2026, Quarter finals in Miami 2026, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2026, Title in Dubai 2026, Semi finals at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Final in Wuhan 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025.

Cirstea reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win over Grabher in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Parry in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Paolini in the 3rd round.
She reached the 4th Round in Cincinnati 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2026, 3rd Round in Dubai 2026, 3rd Round in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Hong Kong 2025, Semi finals in Osaka 2025, Title in Cleveland 2025.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Pegula overall.
Decent chance of 3 sets.
Back Pegula around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Pegula in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Pegula started the match priced at 1.40.

Cirstea served first and was broken to 0. I laid Pegula at 1.26.
1-0

Pegula held to 0.
2-0

Cirstea was broken again. We were more or less at set price. I added to my lay at 1.13.
3-0

Pegula was broken to 30. The price only moved 3 ticks. I stayed with my position.
3-1

Cirstea was taken to deuce but held serve. I removed some liability at 1.21.
3-2

Pegula went 0-40 behind. I removed liability at 1.39, leaving a free bet on Pegula. Pegula recovered to hold serve.
4-2

Cirstea was broken to 30.
5-2

Pegula served for the set. She had 2 set points but couldn’t take them and was eventually broken.
5-3

Cirstea saved 2 break points but was broken to give the set to Pegula.
6-3

After the set, Pegula was priced at 1.12/1.13.

Stats for the set weren’t amazing for Pegula but were dismal for Cirstea. Cirstea got just 44% of first serves into play and won 4 of her 19 second serves (21%).

In the pre match assessment, I had thought that Cirstea could be competitive but after that first set, I decided to stay with my free bet on Pegula.
I didn’t even watch the second set.

Pegula served first in the second set. The first 3 games were holds.
2-1

Cirstea was broken.
3-1

The next 2 games were holds although Cirstea had to save 4 break points in her service game.
4-1
4-2

Pegula was broken.
4-3

Cirstea was broken.
5-3

Pegula was broken when serving for the match.
5-4

Cirstea was broken yet again to give the set and the match to Pegula.
6-4

Pegula won 6-3, 6-4.