WTA US Open Jovic 1.91 v Eala Due to start at midnight Confidence rating 6.5/10
Jovic 2-0. Most recent June 2026, grass, 2 sets. She won on clay in May 2026, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are even.
Jovic reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Frech in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Jones in the 2nd round. She reached the 3rd Round in Dubai 2026, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2026, Final in Hobart 2026, Semi finals in Auckland 2026, Title in Guadalajara 2025.
Eala reached the 2nd round last season. Easy win in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round. She reached the 4th Round in Toronto 2026, Title in Washington 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2026, Quarter finals in Dubai 2026, Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, Semi finals in Auckland 2026, Quarter finals in Sao Paulo 2025.
12 month and 2026 stats favour Jovic overall. Stats for their last 10 favour Eala overall. Lay Jovic around 1.55 and remove liability at 1.95. 3 sets.
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ATP US Open Michelsen 1.67 v Merida Aguilar Due to start at 8:30 pm Confidence rating 7/10
H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2026, hard, Aguilar in 3. Michelsen won on hard in March 2026, 2 sets. Hard win %’s slightly favour Aguilar.
Michelsen lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win over Cina in the 1st round. Straight sets win over Nakashima as underdog in the 2nd round. He reached the 3rd Round in Montreal 2026, Quarter finals in Washington 2026, 4th Round in Miami 2026, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026.
Aguilar lost in the qual rounds last year. 3 sets win over Fucsovics in the 1st round. 4 sets win over Rublev in the 2nd round as underdog. He reached the 3rd Round in Cincinnati 2026, Quarter finals in Montreal 2026.
12 month and 2026 stats favour Michelsen on serve and strongly favour Nakashima on return. 4 sets. Back Michelsen around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75. Lay set 1 winner.
Update: Michelsen served first. The first 6 games were holds of serve with just 1 break point. That was against Michelsen in the 4th game. 3-3
Michelsen was broken to 15. I backed Michelsen at 2.28. 3-4
Aguilar was broken to 30. I removed liability at 1.78, Leaving the profit on Michelsen. 4-4
The next 4 games were holds and they went into a tie break. 6-6
Michelsen took a close tie break 7 points to 5. 7-6
Stats for the set were fairly even and better for Aguilar on second serve points won. After the set, Michelsen was priced at 1.38/1.39.
Aguilar served first in the second set. I placed a small lay on Michelsen at 1.38. The first 6 games were holds. 3-3
Aguilar faced a break point at 30-40. He saved the break point but faced another and was broken. I only had a small liability so stayed in the lay. 4-3
Michelsen went 15-40 behind. I hedged at 1.26. That had taken away some of my profit from the first set. Michelsen saved the break points and held. 5-3
The next 2 games were holds and Michelsen took the set. 5-4 6-4
Stats for the set had improved for Michelsen. Aguilar’s first serve percentage had dropped to just 47%.
After the set, Michelsen was priced at 1.09/1.10
In a best of 5 sets match, laying the player who is 2-0 up in sets can be a great entry. On this occasion, I was ready for some sleep so I left with my small profit.
Aguilar served first and was broken. There were no break points in the next 7 games Then, Aguilar was broken again to give the set and the match to Michelsen.
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