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WTA Merida
Bucsa 1.79 v Frech
Due to start at 11 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Frech 2-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Frech in 2. Bucsa won on clay in 2020, 3 sets. Frech won indoors in 2017, 2 sets. 12 month hard win %’s are even. Frech leads in 2026.

Bucsa had a 2 sets win over Vekic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Stakusic in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Sonmez in the q final. 2 sets win over Paolini as huge underdog in the semis.
She reached the Final in Hong Kong 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025.

Frech lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Timofeeva in the 1st round. Easy win over Maneiro in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Bouzkova as underdog in the q final. 3 sets win over Zhang in the semi final.
3rd Round in Wuhan 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Frech on serve. Good chance of 3 sets. Stats for the tournament favour Bucsa on serve. Return stats are close.
Lay Frech around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Bucsa in 3 sets.

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Update: Pre match, Bucsa’s price dropped from 1.79 to 1.69. Frech served first and was broken. I had been stung a few times in this tournament with matches that I expected to be tight having a very one sided opening set. Bucsa’s price dropped to 1.48. In matches that I expect to be close I will often lay after an early break for the favourite. I stayed out for now.

Bucsa had a hold to 15. In the next game, Frech was broken again. Bucsa was now a double break ahead at 3-0. Entering at this score is not going to hurt us as much if this does turn out to be a one sided set. I laid Bucsa at 1.25.

In the next game, Bucsa was taken to deuce and was then broken. I removed all my liability at 1.37, leaving the green on Bucsa (by using the same stake for the lay and the back bets).

Frech was broken again in the next game. Bucsa had a hold to 30 and broke Frech for a fourth time to take the set.

Stats for Frech in the first set were terrible. She won 9 points on serve. It was an easy set for Bucsa but her first serve % was low at 45% and she was winning 45% of second serve points. 45% isn’t terrible but when coupled with a low first serve percentage, it can give her some problems if that continues.

So my pre match assessment was for a close match. I could just let the free bet on Bucsa run but often, if a player had a very easy first set in a match that was expected to be tight, they can switch off early in the second set.

Bucsa was serving first in set 2. I laid her at 1.15. She was broken. Bucsa’s price moved to 1.25.

Giving Frech a chance to hold might seem like a crazy thing to do. She had not held serve once. However, second sets can often be very different to the first set and I only had a small liability due to the free bet from set 1. Also, if she was broken, I would just be back to the position that I was in at the start of the set.

Frech held to 0! Bucsa’s price went to 1.40. In the next game, If Bucsa went 2 points behind, I would exit. She went 15-40 behind. I backed Bucsa at 1.53, even though I had hoped for a slightly higher price. I left all the green on Bucsa. Bucsa was broken to trail 0-3.

In the next game, Frech was broken. She led 3-1. There would be no more breaks and just 1 break point for the rest of the set which Frech won 6-4.
After the second set, Bucsa was at 1.81.

Stats in the second set were much improved for Frech. Bucsa improved her first serve percentage. Her second serve points won percentage was terrible at 18%.

So I went into the deciding set with a free bet on Bucsa. She served first in the third set. The first 3 games of the set were holds. Both Bucsa’s holds were to 0. Frech served at 1-2 and was broken to 30.

I often lay the player who breaks first in set 3 in WTA matches. In this case, Bucsa had started the set serving well and I didn’t want to mess about with the free bet on my favoured player.

The next 4 games were holds of serve with no break chances. Bucsa served for the match at 5-3. She could be laid at 1.10. I placed a small lay on her. She had served really well in the third set, only dropping points in 1 of her 4 games but this was WTA!

Bucsa was broken to 15. I hedged evenly at 1.41. Anything could happen from here. In the next game, Frech was broken to 15 to hand the set and the match to Bucsa.

Bucsa won 6-1, 4-6, 6-4.