Sofia Kenin 2.62, Garbine Muguruza 1.61
Due to start at 8:30 am
They have met just once before which was in Beijing in September last year. Kenin won on a hard court in 3 sets. Overall results are a little better for Kenin in last 12 months. She also leads on hard courts and has the higher ROI.
Muguruza dropped sets in the first 2 rounds but her last 4 wins were in straight sets including wins over Simona Halep, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Kiki Bertens and Elina Svitolina. She didn’t have a good season in 2019 but has started 2020 pretty well. She has made the better start to the season.
Kenin has lost just 1 set which was against Cori Gauff in the fourth round. She beat Ashleigh Barty in 2 close sets in the semi final. She has had just 1 disappointing match in 2020 which a weak loss to Danielle Collins in Adelaide.
Kenin has better service hold stats for the tournament but Muguruza leads the stats for everything else. She has also served well but Kenin leads 86% to 77% service games held. This should go to 3 sets. Some value on Muguruza.
Kenin has been in the third round at a grand slam tournament 3 times and made it to the fourth round once. Muguruza reached the Wimbledon final in 2015 and won the French Open title in 2016. She won Wimbledon in 2017 and reached the semi finals at the French Open in 2018. It’s fair to say Muguruza has more experience of playing in the big matches.
There is a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. Lay Muguruza around 1.40 and remove the liability at 1.80. Lay the set 1 winner. I think experience will give Muguruza a small advantage.
