Final
Zverev (2.02) v Medvedev (1.96)
Due to start at 2 pm
Zverev leads their previous matches 5-1. Their last match was at the year end finals in November 2019. Zverev won on an indoor hard court in straight sets. He has won both their indoor matches. Only one of their matches went to 3 sets.
Overall results are better for Zverev in the last 12 months. He also has the higher ROI. Long term indoor results are fairly even but Zverev has much better indoor results in the last 12 months. He has won 14 of 16 in the last year and 12 of 12 in 2020. Medvedev has won 8 of 15 in the last year on indoor courts and 8 of 12 in 2020.
Alexander Zverev beat Rafa Nadal in straight sets yesterday as underdog. He also beat Stan Wawrinka in straight sets in the quarter final. He dropped his only set of the week against Adrian Mannarino in the second round. They took a tie break set each and Zverev won the deciding set 6-4. Zverev won two indoor title last month in Cologne. he has been in excellent form since the tour resumed in August reaching the final of the US open and the fourth round of the French Open.
Daniil Medvedev has also been in reasonable form since August. He reached the semi finals at the US Open. He reached the quarter finals in Vienna last week where he didn’t look like he wanted to be there. It has been a different story this week. He has been very focused. He has lost just 1 set this week which was against Alex De Minaur in the third round. He totally outplayed Diego Schwartzman in the quarter final and also won in 2 sets against Milos Raonic yesterday. He has been broken 3 times in 4 matches.
Stats for the tournament are pretty even. Both have served extremely well. The sets should be tight but I give Zverev the edge. He has been in amazing form indoors this year. Medvedev has really stepped up a level this week though and won’t make it easy for him. Zverev has a much better tie break record on all surfaces but is significantly better in tie breaks indoors.
Lay Medvedev around 1.65 to 1.70 and remove or reduce your liability at 2.30. Back Zverev if he loses the first set.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.
