Zverev (1.47) v Wawrinka (3.1)
Due to start at 7 pm though will possibly be much later.
Alexander Zverev has won all 3 of their previous meetings.
The last time they played was at the Australian Open in January and he won in 4 sets. Their only indoor meeting was in Sep 2016 and he won in 3 sets. Stan Wawrinka took a set in all their matches.
Overall results in the last year are close but favour Zverev. Indoor results are also a little better for Zverev.
Wawrinka played a solid match in the first round to beat Dan Evans in straight sets. He faced just 2 break points and wasn’t broken. Wawrinka started his match with American Tommy Paul as a 1.40 favourite but it was Paul who was the stronger player in the first set. The second set was a little messy with both players being broken 3 times. Wawrinka was a break of serve ahead 3 times but the set went into a tie break. Wawrinka levelled the match. He took the deciding set with a double break of serve. I expected Wawrinka to be more focused against Rublev in the third round and that proved to be the case. He lost the first set but won the match in 3 sets.
Zverev won indoor titles in the two Cologne tournaments last month. He has had a week to recover but he may be tiring a little. He really struggled against Mannarino in the last round. He won in 3 very tight sets which included 2 tie breaks despite Mannarino having reached the final last week in Nur-Sultan. I expected him to tire. Zverev served fairly well overall and hit 19 aces. He faced 6 break points and was broken 3 times.
Wawrinka can be inconsistent usually steps up against the big names. We should see another strong performance from him today.
Lay Zverev around 1.30 and remove some or all of your liability at 1.60. Lay the set 1 winner. We have a decent chance of seeing 3 sets. I give a slight edge to Zverev to win.
Update: Zverev comfortably took the first set and Wawrinka was broken 3 times. The second set was much closer. Wawrinka broke Zverev’s serve to lead 3-2 and served for the set at 5-4. he was broken and the set went into a tie break. Zverev easily won the tie break 7-1
Zverev won 6-3, 7-6.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.