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ATP Vienna Semi Final
Musetti v Zverev 1.98
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10
Musetti 3-1. Most recent May 2025, clay, Musetti in 2. He won indoors in Oct (Vienna), 3 sets. Zverev’s win was by retirement in 2022. 12 month indoor win %’s favour Zverev. Musetti leads in 2025.
Musetti reached the Semi final last season. 2 sets win over Medjedovic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Etcheverry in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Moutet in the Quarter final.
Quarter final in Brussels.
Zverev reached the Quarter finals last season. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Fernley in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Arnaldi in the 2nd round. He had a walkover in the Quarter final.
Semi finals in Turin 2024, Title in Paris 2024.
12 month indoor stats are stronger for Zverev on serve. 2025 stats favour Musetti. (small number of matches). Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zverev around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10.
Update: Zverev really stepped up today. There were no break points in the first 6 games. Musetti served at 3-3 and went 15-40 behind. I placed a lay on Zverev but kept the stake/liability small as he had not faced much pressure on his own serve. Musetti saved 2 of the break points but Zverev took the third chance. There were no more break points in the set.
At the start of the second set, I added to the lay of Zverev. Again, I did not go crazy with stake size. No break points in the first 8 games. I have a rule that if I have laid the set winner and the score in set 2 gets to 4-4, I exit. That rules saves me a lot more times than it doesn’t.
No break points in the next 2 games but then Zverev broke to 30 to lead 6-5. He successfully served out the set and the match.
Zverev won 6-4, 7-5.
