Tennnys Sandgren 2.52, Fabio Fognini 1.65
Due to start around 5 am.
Fognini leads their previous matches 2-1. Their last match was at Wimbledon last July and Sandgren won in straight sets. Both of Fognini’s wins were on clay.
Overall results are quite even in the last 12 months. Fognini has stronger hard court results.
Fognini had his first straight sets win of the tournament in the last round. Guido Pella had a problem with his foot but Fognini played a very solid match. In the previous 2 rounds he beat Bautista Agut and Reilly Opelka in fifth set tie breaks.
Sandgren beat Sam Querrey and Matteo Berrettini as underdog. Berettini almost fought back from 2 sets down in their second round match. Sandgren took that one in 5 sets. He also came under a lot of pressure from Querrey and faced 14 break points but was only broken twice. Fognini will also make him work very hard for his service holds and is a much better returner than Querrey is.
This could be another 5 setter for Fognini. Back him around 1.95. I expect Sandgren to take at least a set. Lay the set 1 winner.