Djokovic (1.95) v Medvedev (2.04)
Due to start at 8:30 am
Djokovic leads their previous matches 4-3. Their last match was at the ATP finals in November Medvedev won in straight sets on an indoor court. Djokovic won on a hard court at the ATP Cup in January 2020. He won in 3 sets. Medvedev beat him on hard in Cincinnati 2019 in 3 sets. None of their 3 hard court matches ended in straight sets.
Overall results are superb for both players. Djokovic has a slight edge. He has won 44 of his last 50 matches. Medvedev has won 40 of his last 50. He has a small lead on hard. On hard courts Djokovic won 45 of his last 50 and Medvedev won 44 of 50.
Djokovic has had an eventful tournament. He pulled a muscle in the early rounds. He seemed to think ( or wanted us all to think) that it was a muscle tear. He almost blew a 2 sets lead against Taylor Fritz in the third round. In a TV interview he said that if it was any other tournament he wouldn’t continue. He dropped sets to Milos Raonic and Alex Zverev but there were less signs of the injury. In the semi final he put an end to Aslan Karatsev’s amazing run to the semis.
Medvedev’s route to the final has been simpler. He only dropped sets to Filip Krajinovic in the third round when he picked up a minor injury. The injury almost caused him to throw away a 2 sets lead. Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas were beaten in straight sets. Tsitsipas was perhaps suffering a “hangover” from beating Nadal in the previous round.
Stats for the tournament all favour Medvedev. Djokovic has reached the Australian Open final 8 times and hasn’t lost a final yet. Medvedev’s only appearance in a slam final was at the US Open in 2019. He was exhausted going into the final and still fought back from 2 sets down to take Rafa Nadal to a 5th set.
Djokovic has not quite been at his best in the tournament, partly due to his injury. I think Medvedev has a great chance to take his first grand slam title. It will be a long match. Djokovic’s record in Australian Open finals is a tough stat to go against. Lay Djokovic around 1.50 to 1.60 and remove or reduce your liability at 2.30. Lay the winner of the first set.