Djokovic (1.35) v Tsitsipas (3.8)
Due to start at 4 pm
Head to heads are 3-3. The last time they met was in the final in Dubai in February this year. Djokovic won in straight sets on a hard court. He won their only previous clay match in the Madrid final in 2019. he won in straight sets.
Overall results favour Djokovic in the last 12 months. Both are very strong on clay.
Tsitsipas came back from 2 sets down in the first round against Jaume Munar. He has not lost a set since. I had expected Cuevas, Dimitrov and especially Rublev to at least take sets from him. He was broken twice in those 3 matches.
Djokovic lost the first set in the last round against Carreno Busta. He was having a problem with his neck and had an MTO during that opening set. All 4 sets were very tight. If Djok has a physical issue then that long tight match will not have helped him.
Lay Djokovic around 1.25 and remove some or all liability at 1.50. Lay the set 1 winner.
Djokovic probably wins but its going to be a tough match and I think Tsitsipas can push him all the way.