Semi Final
Bautista Agut (1.76) v Sinner (2.3)
Due to start at 6 pm
Sinner has won both their previous matches. They last met In Dubai last month. He won on a hard court in 3 sets.
Overall results (all surfaces) are stronger for Sinner. He has won 34 of his last 50 . Bautista Agut won 30 of 50. Their long term hard court results are even. Sinner has a slight edge in the last 12 months.
Sinner has dropped just 1 set this week. That was the opening set against Karen Khachanov in the second round. In the quarter final Alexander Bublik kept both sets really close but Sinner came through 7-6, 6-4. Sinner reached the quarter finals in Dubai and also the quarter finals indoors in Marseille the week before.
Bautista Agut had a walkover in the first round when Lloyd Harris pulled out. In the second round Jan-Lennard Struff took the opening set but Bautista Agut controlled the next 2 sets. In the third round I fancied Miami based John Isner to beat him. Isner had made the final in the last 2 Miami Opens including winning the title in 2018. Bautista Agut took the match in a third set tie break. He beat top seed Daniil Medvedev in straight sets in the quarter final despite only winning 33% of his second serve points.
Stats for the tournament favour Sinner. We have a fair chance of seeing 3 sets. Lay Bautista Agut around 1.50 and remove or reduce your liability at 2.00. Back Sinner if he loses the first set.
Update: Sinner was broken in the first game. He did manage to break back a few games later but a late break for Bautista Agut gave him the set, In the second set there were no breaks in the first 9 games but a break in the 10th game for Sinner took the match to a deciding set.
Sinner was broken early in set 3 and Bautista Agut led 3-1. Sinner got back to 3-3 and yet another late break at 5-4 gave him the match and a place in the final.
Sinner won 5-7, 6-4, 6-4.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.
