Novak Djokovic (2.96) v Rafa Nadal (1.50)
Due to start at 4 pm
Djokovic leads their previous matches 29-27. They last met in the French Open final in September. Nadal won in straight sets. He has won their last 4 clay matches. Djokovic’s last win on clay was in the Rome quarter final in 2016.
Overall win percentages are excellent for both players. Slight edge to Djokovic. They have excellent clay results but Nadal has the lead on this surface.
Djokovic dropped sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Lorenzo Sonego in the last 2 rounds. Tsitsipas was a set and a break ahead. He was also a break ahead in the deciding set. Djokovic won the title last season.
Nadal lost 1 set this week to Denis Shapovalov Shapovalov. Shapovalov had a 3-1 lead in the third set and had a couple of match points before they reached the tie break. Nadal easily won the tie break. In the quarter final he beat Alex Zverev in straight sets. Zverev put him under a lot of pressure and had 10 break chances but only broke once. In the semi final he ended the superb run of Reilly Opelka in straight sets.
Stats for the tournament are close but favour Djokovic. Nadal has got stronger in the last 2 rounds while Djokovic has struggled a little. Lay Nadal if he gets a very early break of serve and reduce or remove liability when Djokovic breaks back. Back Nadal above 2.00 or if he loses the opening set.
Update: Nadal was broken in his first service game. he immediately broke back. His price hit 2.40 . A late break gave Nadal the chance to serve for the set which he eventually managed. the second set was surprisingly one sided. Nadal was broken twice and Djokovic took the set 6-1. In the deciding set a single break for Nadal in the 6th game was enough to give him the title.
Nadal won 7-5, 1-6, 6-3.