We had some decent matches yesterday. The Goerges wasn’t great with Sevastova playing much better than expected and then Goerges twisting an ankle and retiring a game later.
Exhibition = REDUCED STAKES!
Bautista Agut (2.48) v Berrettini (1.6)
Due to start at 11 am
Berrettini leads their previous matches 5-1. He has won their last 4 meetings. Four of his wins were on clay. They have never met on grass.
Overall results in the last 12 months are slightly better for Bautista Agut although both have been in strong form.
Their win percentages on grass are very similar. Bautista Agut has more grass experience. Last season he reached the semi finals at Wimbledon and quarter finals in Halle. Berrettini reached the fourth round at Wimbledon, the semi finals in Halle and won the title in Stuttgart.
They met twice last week on clay with Berrettini winning both matches in straight sets. He then played an Ultimate Tennis Showdown event in France which he won on hard courts. He now faced another switch of playing surface to grass.
Bautista Agut made a very slow start to his match with Struff yesterday. Struff has had very little success on grass but played an excellent match. Bautista Agut won in the deciding tie break.
Berrettini didn’t seem to struggle when switching from clay to hard courts last week. He is comfortable on grass. This really should be fairly close and we have a good chance of needing the match tie break which replaces the third set.
I expect to see a higher price on Berrettini but he should win. Back him around 1.85 to 1.95. Lay the set 1 winner.
Svitolina (2.22) v Sevastova (1.66)
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Svitolina leads their previous meetings 2-1. Their most recent match was in September 2019 in Beijing. She won in 3 sets on a hard court after Sevastova took the first set in a tie break. They have never met on grass.
Svitolina has stronger 12 month results and also made a better start to 2020. It wasn’t a great start but it was better than Sevastova’s 1 win from 7.
Last season Sevastova reached the semi finals in Mallorca on grass. It is one of her favourite tournaments and she made the final in 2016 and 2018 and won the title in 2017.
Svitolina hadn’t had much success on grass until Wimbledon last season when she reached the semi final. She lost to Halep who went on to beat Serena Williams in the final.
Just before Covid-19 came along Svitolina won the hard court title in Monterrey. She has played just one match since then which she lost on clay to Viktorija Golubic.
As I said above Sevastova had made an awful start to the year with 1 win from 7. Bizarrely her only win was over Serena Williams in a Fed Cup tie in February. Yesterday she played an extremely strong match to beat Julia Goerges who retired half way through the second set.
I agree with Sevastova being the favourite today but I am hoping for a close match. Lay Svitolina if she breaks first. Back Sevastova around 1.90 or wait for her to be broken before backing her.
Thiem (1.31) v Sinner (3.9)
Due to start around 3 pm
This will be their first meeting.
Much stronger overall results for Thiem in the last 12 months and in 2020. He doesn’t have a great record on grass. In 2016 he won the title in Stuttgart and reached the semi finals in Halle. Since then a fourth round finish at Wimbledon in 2017 is his best result.
Sinner had his break through season in 2019. He has massive potential. Powerful ground strokes and a great attitude. He doesn’t have much experience on grass. Yesterday he came through against Tommy Haas who had not played on the tour for 3 years. I wasn’t sure how well Haas would compete but he looked in great shape. When he recovered from being a set and a break behind to take the second set he seemed to have the momentum but as we know a new set often breaks any momentum. Sinner took the match tie break.
I see some value on Sinner today. Grass isn’t Thiem’s best surface and he might take a little time to adjust after playing a lot of clay matches during the pandemic.
Lay Thiem around 1.20 and remove liability around 1.45. Lay the set 1 winner.
Kvitova (1.44) v Bertens (2.8)
Due to start at 4:30 pm
Their head to head record is 3-3. Bertens has won 3 of their last 4 matches. They last met in Madrid on clay in May last year. Bertens won in straight sets. Kvitova won their only grass match at Wimbledon in June 2015. Bertens won just 1 game that day.
Overall results in the last 12 months are close but slightly favour Bertens. Longer term grass results favour Kvitova. She reached the fourth round at Wimbledon last year. She won the title there in 2014. She won the title in Birmingham in 2018 and 2017. Bertens only reached the third round at Wimbledon on 2019 but also made the semi finals in Eastbourne and the final in Hertogenbosch. She reached the Wimbledon quarter finals in 2018.
Bertens has not played during lockdown. Her last match was in Doha in February. Kvitova has played 2 matches during the pandemic including a straight sets win over Petkovic yesterday. It was a typical Kvitova match. She looked like she was in control but a few too many errors or wild swings gave Petkovic more chances than she should have had.
This won’t be easy for Bertens. She will be a little match rusty. Kvitova is priced too low though as she will give Bertens a helping hand on more than one occasion. If Kvitova breaks in the early games lay her. Back Kvitova if she goes a break behind or loses set 1.