These predictions are aimed at traders rather than punters. When assessing a match, I initially look for 2 things. Who do I think will win and how competitive will the other player be? Use them for straight bets if you wish but please bear in mind that is not what they are intended for.
**For previous rounds, if predictions were correct, I have left them in blue. Corrections are in black. The number in brackets is the confidence rating out of 10 from the Trading Tips email.
Update: Rakhimova served first and was broken to 15. I laid Kalinina at 1.32. In the next game, Kalinina was broken to 0 and I removed liability at 1.59, leaving a free bet on Kalinina.
The next 2 games were holds. Rakhimova served at 2-2 and was broken in a long game in which she saved 1 break point and there were 4 deuces. I left the free bet to run. Kalinina went to to take the next 3 games to win the set 6-3.
Stats for the set were better for Kalinina. Rakhimova had a low first serve percentage and won just 3 of her 17 second serve points.
I needed to see some improvement for Rakhimova if I was going to consider laying Kalinina.
Kalinina was priced at 1.11 after the first set. Rakhimova served first in the second set and was broken to 0. Kalinina then held to 0. The next 2 games were also holds.
Rakhimova served at 1-3. She saved 3 break points but was eventually broken.
Kalinina was now a set and a double break ahead. I hedged at 1.01. I then laid Kalinina at 1.01. It was a speculative lay and was as cheap a lay as you can get! I didn’t expect a recovery.
In the next game, Kalinina was broken to 0. I could have exited at 1.03. There was no point in doing that.
In the next game, Rakhimova had to save a break point but she held. Kalinina served at 4-3. She faced a break point. I could have exited at 1.09. I waited. She saved 3 break points in that game but held. Rakhimova then held to 30.
Kalinina would serve for the match at 5-4. She was broken to 0! I could exit at 1.17. I was tempted to let it run but hedged. I had pushed my luck enough! It is very common when a player has been behind for the whole set and gets back to 5-5, they then immediately get broken.
Rakhimova served at 5-5 and held to 30. Kalinina’s price moved to 1.30. She then broke Kalinina to take the set! Kalinina’s price moved to 1.58. HUGE opportunity missed by me!
After the way the second set ended, I really didn’t trust either of the players. Also, to be honest, I was more than a little irritated with myself for not staying longer in that last set! I stayed away from the deciding set.
Kalinina could easily have crumbled but she took the deciding set with a double break.
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