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WTA Madrid qualifying
Masarova v Sramkova 1.92
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Masarova 2-1. Most recent Apr 2024, clay, Masarova in 3. Sramkova won on hard in March 2024, 2 sets. Masarova won indoors in 2016, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Masarova.

Masarova reached the 3rd round as qualifier last year.
CH q final in July. CH final in May.

Sramkova lost in the 1st round last season.
CH q final in April 2026. 2nd round in Strasbourg 2025. 2nd round in Rome 2025.

12 month WTA stats favour Masarova overall. 12 month CH stats also favour her overall.
Lay Sramkova around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Masarova in 3 sets.

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Update: Sramkova served first. She was broken to 30. I laid Masarova at 1.65.

Masarova then held to 0. In the next game, Sramkova faced and saved 5 break points. Masarova then had another easy hold to lead 3-1. This was looking very one sided. I hedged for a loss at 1.42.

In the next game, Sramkova was broken to 0. Masarova was now a double break up so I laid her at 1.25. She was broken to 30 in the next game. Her price rose to 1.38. I decided to give Sramkova a chance to hold. She did hold to 30. I hedged at 1.45. That almost cancelled out my red position.

Masarova then held after being taken to deuce twice. Sramkova was then broken to 15 to give Masarova the set.

Stats for the set were much better for Masarova. A terrible set from Sramkova, especially on second serve.

I was not in a rush to lay Masarova. I wanted to wait to see if she could go up by a set and a break for a better lay opportunity.

The first 3 games were easy holds. Sramkova served at 1-2. She saved 6 break points but was broken on the 7th break point. I laid Masarova at 1.06.

The next 2 games were holds to 30. Masarova served at 4-2. She went 15-40 behind and I could have hedged at 1.11. I waited for the break. She was broken to 15 and I hedged at 1.16.

The next 4 games were holds. Sramkova served at 5-6 and was broken to 15.

Masarova won 6-3, 7-5.