Tradeshark Diary, 23rd April 2021

It has been a while since the last diary post. Life is starting to get a little nearer to normal. It has only been 14 months but it’s hard to remember when we weren’t having the think about Covid. As I am sure I have said before I don’t really understand the “need” to get back to the pub. We go out, obviously but rarely just for a drink. We would be more likely to have people over or to go to their place. If we go to a pub it’s for a meal. Sue can drink me under the table and I’d rather pay supermarket prices.

Our daughter and son in law moved into their new house last week. We went over there on Saturday. I had only seen photos. It will be a great family home when its all finished. They have been renovating it for the last 8 months. They have quite a big garden but there are no proper fences between the neighbours on both sides. They have used up all the money from the sale of their old house so I said we’d pay for the fences. They were chuffed to bits as the kids and the dog can’t play out there just yet. There is also something that looks like a grave down at the bottom of the garden. I’m sure it isn’t a grave. Well, actually I’m not. None of the neighbours know where the old guy who lived there buried his wife.

Diary

A couple of days later Sue called her cousin who does some garden landscaping as a side job. She seemed to think he would help the kids out for free with tidying up the garden. I told her that he was probably fed up with all the family asking him to do jobs on the cheap but she said he would be fine. He asked her how much she thought it was going to be and she told him about £500. He asked her what year it was and did she think it was the 1950’s. She told him to sort out with our daughter what they wanted done in the garden and get back to us with the quote. Hang on. “Us”? We’ve just paid a grand for fencing. I knew there was no point arguing as our daughter wouldn’t accept us paying for it. They were more than happy with the fences. The quote came in at over 4K. I think not.

The next week or so are going to be a mess at home. We are having a new kitchen fitted, starting on Monday. Obviously everything has to come out of the kitchen by Monday morning. Sue was getting herself stressed about everything being in a mess.

“All our things are going to be in boxes.”

“Well, yes. there is no other way to do it.”

“But they’ll smash all the tiles!”

“Do you want to keep the tiles?”

“No.”

“Exactly. If they try to take them off carefully they will be here a lot longer.”

“I hate things being messed up!!”

I knew this. I mainly knew this as she has said it a couple of hundred times in the last few days. So, if you’re stressed about everything being a mess and everything from the kitchen is going into boxes, what’s the best thing to do? You guessed it! Empty the bloody kitchen 5 days early! She says she just wants it over and done with. So the living room (which is smaller than the kitchen) is now stacked up with boxes of stuff from the cupboards and drawers.

It’s going to be a long week.

 
Tennis Trading Guide

Tradeshark Diary, 23rd April 2021 Read More »

WTA Stuttgart – Svitolina v Kvitova

Quarter final

Elina Svitolina (2.68) v Petra Kvitova (1.58)

Due to start at 4 pm.

Kvitova leads their previous matches 7-4. The last time they met was in Miami in March. Svitolina won in 3 sets on a hard court. They have never met on clay.

Long term overall win percentages are strong for both women. They have also been pretty even in the last 12 months. They both have very strong records on clay.

Kvit was comfortable in the first round against Jennifer Brady. She had a tougher match with Maria Sakkari in the last round. She faced 16 break points though was only broken 3 times in 3 sets. Her first serve was poor. She got it into the court 73% of the time but won 61% of points on it which is a little low for her. She reached the semi finals at the French open in September last year. She won this title in 2019.

WTA Stuttgart - Svitolina v Kvitova 1
Svitolina – Photo: Tennis World USA

Svitolina has played just 1 match this week. She struggled more than expected against Angelique Kerber though only faced 3 break points and was broken twice. Svitolina should be competitive today. She reached the quarter finals of the French Open and won the title in Strasbourg in September.

Kvitova is priced too low at 1.50. Svitolina has the higher ROI on clay. Lay Kvitova around 1.35 and remove or reduce the liability at 1.70. Lay the winner of the first set. The value is on Svitolina. It should be a great match.

Update: Kvitova was broken in her first service game. She immediately broke back and broke again for a 5-4 lead. She could not serve out the set and they ended up in a tie break that Kvitova won. In the second set Kvitova took a 5-2 lead but Svitolina took the next 5 games to level the match.
The deciding set was very one sided in favour of Svitolina.
Svitolina won 6-7, 7-5, 6-2.

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 
Tennis Trading Guide

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