ATP Monte Carlo
Rune 1.39 v Borges
Due to start at 11:30 am

Rune 2-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. He won on hard in March 2023, 2 sets. Clay win %’s are even.

Rune reached the q finals last year. Q finals in Hamburg. 4th round of the French Open. Semis in Munich.

Borges won the title in Bastad. 4th round in Rome.

12 month clay stats are stronger for Rune overall.

Back Rune around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

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Update:
Rune was broken when serving at 2-3. I backed him at 2.08. In the next game Borges faced a break point. As they were potentially close to the end of the set, I removed most of my liability at 1.74.
Borges saved the break point and held serve. He then broke Rune against to take the set. I hedged the small profit.
Rune then called for an MTO and both the doctor and physio were called. I don’t think he actually received any medication and did not receive treatment from the physio.
Rune retired when Borges took a 3-0 lead.

Borges won 6-2, 3-0 (retired)

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Info for using the Trading Tip

Keep stakes low while learning the tennis markets.

The prices I give are where I suggest we enter the market. I am looking for the price to hit during set 1, and hopefully early in the set to give us time to get our exit price. 

I will often say to lay Player A “around 1.25”. If the price gets close to that price we can enter. In this example we might enter at 1.27.

We are then looking for our exit price. I will post to remove liab or liability/risk/red at a particular price. I will often remove at least some of the liability if our player gets a break point and then remove any remaining liability when the break is complete. It can be frustrating if our player gets break points but doesn’t break. By removing some liability, we improve our break even price so if they don’t get the break of serve, we are still in profit.

If the advice is to lay the set 1 winner:  If I am expecting the match to go to 3 sets, I want to lay whoever takes the first set. However, if the player who lost the set is serving first in set 2, it can be a good idea to wait for them to have their service game before laying. Even if they get broken, we can lay after that first service game. Laying a player when they are a set and a break ahead is a solid entry as the leading player will often relax and allow the other player back into the set.

As a general guide, until you are experienced enough to make your own choices and trading decisions, I recommend exiting the trade if your player gets broken AFTER you backed them. There will, of course be situations when they do recover but it’s best to protect your confidence as much as you should protect your bank.