The Final

Medvedev (1.78) v Thiem (2.26)

Due to start at 6 pm

Thiem leads their previous matches 3-1. Their last match was at the US Open in August. Thiem won on a hard court in straight sets. Medvedev won on a hard court in Canada in August 2019. He won in 2 sets.

Both players have very strong overall results. Thiem has a slight lead. Their indoor results are very close. Slight edge to Medvedev.

Medvedev Struggled a little for form when the tour resumed in August. He got his act together at the Paris Masters earlier this month and won the title. In this tournament he has been in superb form. He dropped his first set of the tournament last night to Rafa Nadal. Nadal served for the match at 5-4 in the second set but Medvedev broke him to 0. He took the set in a tie break and took their deciding set with a double break of serve.

Thiem also needed 3 sets in the semi final. He was 0-4 down in the third set tie break but fought back. Thiem served extremely well in the semi final. He faced just 3 break points and was not broken. Djokovic only faced 2 break points in that match and was broken once. He had not looked motivated in his last round robin match. He didn’t need to win that match as had already qualified for the semi finals. I thought that tanking that match may affect his momentum and therefore his form in the Djokovic match but that was not the case.

Stats for the tournament favour Medvedev. His return stats are significantly better. He has been broken 4 times in the tournament. Three of them came in the semi final. This is going to be another tight one. If both players continue to serve well it could be settled in 3 tie breaks. I am going with Medvedev to take it in 3 sets. Back him around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the winner of the first set.

 

The round robin matches are over and we have our 4 semi finalists. Fittingly they are the top 4 ranked players in the world. Both matches have the potential to be classics. I’ll try to figure out who will make it to Sunday’s final.

Thiem (2.6) v Djokovic (1.62)

Due to start at 2 pm

Djokovic leads their previous matches 8-4. Their most recent meeting was in the Australian Open final in January. Djokovic won in 5 sets on a hard court. They met in the round robin stages of this tournament last season. Thiem won that match in a 3rd set tie break. Four of their last 5 matches went to a deciding set. The other match was over in 2 tie breaks so this is going to be close. Both have excellent indoor records.

Thiem didn’t play well in his last match. That may have been because there was nothing to play for as he had already qualified for the semi finals. Alternatively he may have been tanking the match to save energy. That may work against him today as he could have wrecked his momentum. As we saw from Medvedev last night some players would prefer to keep the winning run going.

Djokovic lost to Medvedev in straight sets in the round robin matches. He beat Schwartzman and Zverev in 2 sets. He needed to beat Zverev yesterday to qualify for this semi final. Zverev played better than he had done in his previous matches and put Djokovic under pressure especially in their second set. Djokovic faced 3 break points but was not broken.

We have some value on Thiem and I expect this to go to 3 sets. I think Thiem’s flat performance in the last match could also affect his performance today. Djokovic will find a way to win as his intensity will be higher. Back Djokovic around 2.10. Lay the winner of the first set.

Medvedev (1.78) v Nadal (2.26)

Due to start at 8 pm

Nadal has won all 3 of their previous matches. Their most recent was at this tournament last year. He won in a third set tie break. He also won in the US Open final in 2019 and that one went to 5 sets. In the win at this tournament Medvedev was 5-1 up in the third set but Nadal fought back to win.

Medvedev is playing the tennis of his life. He won the title in Paris on indoor courts. He hasn’t lost a set this week. His performance last night was in stark contrast to that of Dominic Thiem. Both of them had already qualified for the semi finals. Thiem either couldn’t lift himself to compete against Rublev whereas Medvedev was clearly up for the fight against Schwartzman and was clearly enjoying himself.

Nadal lost to Thiem in 2 tie breaks and needed 3 sets to beat Tsitsipas. He has served well all week and looked very impressive in the first match against Rublev. He doesn’t have an amazing record at the O2 Arena. It’s not a bad record but since reaching the final in 2013 a semi final in 2015 was his best result.

Both players have held over 90% of service games this week. Medvedev held 96% of his service games. All stats for the tournament favour him. This should be a great match. It is hard to go against Medvedev in his current form but we don’t often see Nadal priced above 2.00 pre match.

There is a very good chance of this going to 3 sets. The value is on Nadal. He will need to be at the very top of his game to beat Medvedev. Medvedev has been broken once in 6 sets this week. He should believe that he can beat Nadal though his choke from 5-1 up in their meeting last year does suggest that he didn’t believe in him self enough. He is a very different player right now. My gut feeling is that Medvedev takes this.

Lay the set 1 winner.