Medvedev (1.78) v Thiem (2.26)
Due to start at 6 pm
Thiem leads their previous matches 3-1. Their last match was at the US Open in August. Thiem won on a hard court in straight sets. Medvedev won on a hard court in Canada in August 2019. He won in 2 sets.
Both players have very strong overall results. Thiem has a slight lead. Their indoor results are very close. Slight edge to Medvedev.
Medvedev Struggled a little for form when the tour resumed in August. He got his act together at the Paris Masters earlier this month and won the title. In this tournament he has been in superb form. He dropped his first set of the tournament last night to Rafa Nadal. Nadal served for the match at 5-4 in the second set but Medvedev broke him to 0. He took the set in a tie break and took their deciding set with a double break of serve.
Thiem also needed 3 sets in the semi final. He was 0-4 down in the third set tie break but fought back. Thiem served extremely well in the semi final. He faced just 3 break points and was not broken. Djokovic only faced 2 break points in that match and was broken once. He had not looked motivated in his last round robin match. He didn’t need to win that match as had already qualified for the semi finals. I thought that tanking that match may affect his momentum and therefore his form in the Djokovic match but that was not the case.
Stats for the tournament favour Medvedev. His return stats are significantly better. He has been broken 4 times in the tournament. Three of them came in the semi final. This is going to be another tight one. If both players continue to serve well it could be settled in 3 tie breaks. I am going with Medvedev to take it in 3 sets. Back him around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the winner of the first set.
I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.
The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.
The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:
Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).
If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.