TradeShark Diary, 8th November 2020

So we’re back in lockdown. Will it only last until the 2nd of December? As the Government were forced to open pubs and restaurants earlier than perhaps it was safe to do so I think they will also be forced to open things up a little for Christmas. They surely know that people will be more likely to break the lockdown rules to be with family at Christmas. Sue’s mood dropped as soon as her ward was made into a Covid ward last week. She worked on Friday and is in there today and tomorrow. Last night things got very tense at home as she anticipated walking back into the hospital. Obviously I understand why but it puts me right back into walking on egg shells. She then complains that I don’t talk to her about the lockdown. If I do I get my head bitten off. I just can’t win.

I have a few aches and pains this morning. Not from anything Sue did. The plate she threw missed. When I went to pick her up from work on Friday evening I noticed that someone had dumped a large branch down the side of the house. There is a fence runs the length of the garden and they had dropped it over that fence. I decided to move it and carried it up the street and up an alleyway/path that leads up to a park area. Once you are halfway up the path it is pretty much pitch black as there are no lights on the park. I was just deciding whether to throw the branch into bushes on the left or into bushes on the right. A moment later I was face down on the concrete. I went down like a sack of shit. There are steps leading up the path and I thought I had passed all of them. I hadn’t and must have caught my foot on the last one. I did what any normal person would do in that situation. I looked around to see if anyone had seen me fall. My left arm and hand took most of the weight but I only have the type of scrapes that you get when you fall over in the playground as a kid. Both knees and my arm are aching but I expected them to be worse than they are. Our Granddaughter thought it was hilarious as she seems to fall over in the playground every day. We facetimed yesterday and compared injuries.

The website Lay Back and Get Rich have presented their Betting Oscars as they do every year. I won the main category a few years ago. For the last 3 years I have won the award for Best (other sport) Betting Product. It is for sports other than racing or football. It’s a catchy title isn’t it? Anyway I won it again! Apparently I had 33% of the vote. Four in a row. I feel like Ant and Dec (without the drunk driving conviction).

Betting Oscars 2020

Trading has been excellent this week. If I say so myself my predictions for the Paris Masters have been pretty good. That always makes profit easier to come by. We have a couple of weeks left in November and then a WTA tournament in week commencing 16th of December. The new season kicks off in January.

The family funeral will be on the 23rd of November. There is no tennis that week so that’s worked out well. I will have to drive down there in the morning and come back straight after. It’s a 300 mile round trip. The funeral is at 11:15 and it’s a 45 minute drive from the house to the Crematorium. Hopefully the roads will be quiet.

So the yanks finally got rid of Trump. Hopefully they film the hostage situation when he refuses to leave the White House or when he does a runner down the freeway in an armoured off road vehicle OJ Simpson style. What a plank. Even Twitter have started putting messages on his tweets that the things he is saying as not proven.

Hopefully I have a quiet day. Zverev to beat Medvedev. Stay safe.

 
Tennis Trading Guide

TradeShark Diary, 8th November 2020 Read More »

ATP Paris Masters: Zverev v Medvedev

Final

Zverev (2.02) v Medvedev (1.96)

Due to start at 2 pm

Zverev leads their previous matches 5-1. Their last match was at the year end finals in November 2019. Zverev won on an indoor hard court in straight sets. He has won both their indoor matches. Only one of their matches went to 3 sets.

Overall results are better for Zverev in the last 12 months. He also has the higher ROI. Long term indoor results are fairly even but Zverev has much better indoor results in the last 12 months. He has won 14 of 16 in the last year and 12 of 12 in 2020. Medvedev has won 8 of 15 in the last year on indoor courts and 8 of 12 in 2020.

Alexander Zverev beat Rafa Nadal in straight sets yesterday as underdog. He also beat Stan Wawrinka in straight sets in the quarter final. He dropped his only set of the week against Adrian Mannarino in the second round. They took a tie break set each and Zverev won the deciding set 6-4. Zverev won two indoor title last month in Cologne. he has been in excellent form since the tour resumed in August reaching the final of the US open and the fourth round of the French Open.

Zverev
Alex Zverev – Photo: Tennis Head

Daniil Medvedev has also been in reasonable form since August. He reached the semi finals at the US Open. He reached the quarter finals in Vienna last week where he didn’t look like he wanted to be there. It has been a different story this week. He has been very focused. He has lost just 1 set this week which was against Alex De Minaur in the third round. He totally outplayed Diego Schwartzman in the quarter final and also won in 2 sets against Milos Raonic yesterday. He has been broken 3 times in 4 matches.

Stats for the tournament are pretty even. Both have served extremely well. The sets should be tight but I give Zverev the edge. He has been in amazing form indoors this year. Medvedev has really stepped up a level this week though and won’t make it easy for him. Zverev has a much better tie break record on all surfaces but is significantly better in tie breaks indoors.

Lay Medvedev around 1.65 to 1.70 and remove or reduce your liability at 2.30. Back Zverev if he loses the first set.

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 
Tennis Trading Guide

ATP Paris Masters: Zverev v Medvedev Read More »

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