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Trading Tips – Download link: May 19th

ATP Hamburg
Darderi 1.58 v Hanfmann
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Darderi 5-0. All their matches were on clay. Most recent May 2026, 2 sets. He won by walkover in Apr 2026. 2 sets win in march 2026. 2 sets win in Feb 2024. 2 sets win in 2023. Clay win %’s favour Darderi.

Darderi reached the Quarter final last year. 2 sets win over Burruchaga in the 1st round.
Semi finals in Rome 2026, Semi finals in Marrakech 2026, Title in Santiago 2026, Final in Buenos Aires 2026, Title in Umag 2025, Title in Bastad 2025.

Hanfmann needed 3 sets against a qualifier in the 1st round.
He reached the 2nd round in Rome 2026. 2nd round in Madrid 2026. Quarter final in Marrakech 2026. Final in Santiago 2026.

12 month stats and 2026 stats favour Hanfmann on serve.
Recent performances are better for Darderi.
Back Darderi around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Darderi in 2 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Darderi started the match at 1.51.
Hanfmann served first and held to 15.
0-1

Darderi was broken to 30. His price moved to 1.91. This was not quite the price I wanted (2.00 to 2.20) but in this situation, I back the favourite after the break. As the value is less than I would like, I reduce the stake. So, I backed Darderi at 1.91.
0-2

Hanfmann was broken to 15. I reduced my liability at 1.57, leaving the profit on Darderi.
1-2

The next 9 games were holds with no break points!
6-6

The tie break was very tight. Hanfmann had 3 set points but it was Darderi wo took the tie break 9-7.
7-6

Darderi was priced at 1.17 after the set.

Stats for the set were fairly even. The big difference was the first serve percentages. Darderi was 72% and Hanfmann got just 51% of his first serves in play.

Both players had ended the first set serving well. Darderi served first in the second set. I laid him at the start of the set at 1.17. He held to 15.
1-0

The next 6 games were holds with no break points.
1-1
2-1
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3

Hanfmann went 15-40 behind. He saved the break point and held. The score was now 4-4. That is my exit score if I have laid the set 1 winner. I hedged at 1.16.
4-4

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
5-4
5-5
6-5

Hanfmann was broken to 15 to hand the set and the match to Darderi.
7-5

Darderi won 7-6, 7-5.