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ATP Montreal
Jodar 1.48 v Nakashima
Due to start at 11 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Jodar.

Jodar had a 3 sets win in the 2nd round as favourite. Easy win over Musetti in the 3rd round. 2 sets win over Lehecka as slight favourite in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Fils in the q final as slight underdog.
He reached the Final in Washington 2026, 3rd Round in Miami 2026.

Nakashima reached the 3rd round last year. Easy win over Altmaier in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets against Droguet in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Rinderknech as favourite in the 4th round. 2 sets win over Darderi in the q final.
Semi finals in Washington 2026, Semi finals in Acapulco 2026, Final in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Semi finals in Chengdu 2025.

12 month and 2026 stats favour Nakashima on serve. Return stats are much stronger for Jodar.
The sets will be close. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Jodar around 1.30 and remove liability at 1.60. Back Jodar around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Jodar in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Nakashima served first. He held to 0.
0-1

Jodar saved 3 break points before holding.
1-1

Nakashima held to 15.
1-2

Jodar went 0-40 behind. He had not made a good start but it was early days. I placed a small back on Jodar at 1.92.
He recovered to hold. I removed liability at 1.58, leaving the green on Jodar.
2-2

The next 8 games were holds with no break points. They were going into a tie break. I hedged at 1.57.
6-6

Nakashima took the tie break 7-3.
6-7

Not a great set from Jodar, despite not being broken. He faced 6 break points. He only once got to 30 on return of serve.

Nakashima was priced at 1.62/1.63 after the set.

Jodar served first in the second set. I waited for him to have his serve. He was broken to 0. He was looking second best and was probably low on energy.
Still, you never know. I placed a small lay on Nakashima at 1.26. My small profit from the first set kept the liability small.
0-1

Nakashima was taken to deuce for the first time in the match but did not face a break point.
0-2

Jodar had to save a break point but held.
1-2

Nakashima went 15-40 behind. I hedged at 1.40. I was not confident that Jodar could break. Nakashima saved the break points and held.
1-3

The next 4 games were holds. Jodar saved a break point when he served at 2-4.
2-3
2-4
3-4
3-5

Jodar served at 4-5 to stay in the match. He saved 2 match points but eventually held.
4-5

Nakashima served for the match. He saved 4 break points and needed 3 match points to get the job done.
4-6

Nakashima won 7-6, 6-4.

Small profit. When your favoured player loses in straight sets, not losing money is a bonus!