These predictions are aimed at traders rather than punters. When assessing a match, I initially look for 2 things. Who do I think will win and how competitive will the other player be? Use them for straight bets if you wish but please bear in mind that is not what they are intended for.
ATP Paris Masters Michelsen v Bergs 1.88 Due to start at 2:30 pm Confidence rating 7/10
Michelsen 2-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. He won on hard in Aug 2024, 3 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Bergs leads in 2025.
Michelsen reached the 2nd round last year. Semi finals in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.
Bergs reached the 2nd round as lucky loser last season. Semi finals in Marseille 2025, Quarter finals in Metz 2024.
12 month and 2025 indoor stats favour Bergs on serve. Lay Michelsen around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.
Update: Bergs broke serve in the 3rd game to lead 2-1. As I expected 3 sets, I laid him. I kept liability small as I was going against my favoured player. Berg’s next 2 service game were easy enough holds and he led 4-2. I hedged for a small loss to wait for set 2. I needed to see if Michelsen could put some pressure on the Bergs serve for the rest of the first set. Bergs broke again in the next game to lead 5-2.
Bergs was broken when serving for the set but immediately broke Michelsen again to take the set.
In set 2, Bergs served first. He had been broken in his previous service game and was vulnerable to a slow start in this set after dominating the first set. I laid Bergs. Bergs was broken in the first game. That was followed by an easy hold for Michelsen. I removed half my liability.
Bergs was broken again in his next service game and I hedged evenly. Michelsen would break again to lead 5-0. He was broken when serving for the set. The next 2 games were holds and Michelsen took set 2.
I rarely get involved in ATP 3rd sets, especially on hard or indoor hard courts. I kept my profit and ran.
The third set was one sided and Bergs took it with a double break.
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