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Trading Tips download 8th May

WTA Rome
Paolini v Mertens 1.75
Due to start at 12:00
Confidence rating 7/10

Mertens 4-2. Most recent June 2024, grass, Mertens retired. Mertens won on hard in Oct 2023, 2 sets. 3 sets win on hard in Feb 2022. Paolini won on hard in 2021, 3 sets. Mertens won on clay in 2020 and 2018, 3 and 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Paolini in the last year. Mertens leads in 2026.

Paolini won the title last year. She needed 3 sets against Jeanjean in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the French Open 2025.

Mertens reached the 4th round last season. 2 sets win over Udvardy in the 2nd round.
3rd round in Madrid 2026. 2nd round in Stuttgart 2026.

12 month stats favour Mertens on serve. 2026 stats favour her overall.
Lay Paolini around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Mertens in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Pre match, Mertens drifted from 1.75 to 1.98.
Paolini served first. The first 4 games were holds with no break points.
1-0
1-1
2-1
2-2

Paolini was broken to 30. I laid Mertens at 1.52.
2-3

Mertens was broken to 30. I did not exit at break point as the price move was fairly small. After the break, I removed most of my liability at 1.80.
3-3

Paolini faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged at 1.65. She recovered to hold.
4-3

The next 2 games were holds.
4-4
5-4

Mertens was broken to 30 to hand the set to Paolini. Paolini was priced at 1.41 after the set.
6-4.

Stats for the set were a little better for Paolini. She had a much better first serve percentage at 74%. First serve points won and second serve points won were similar but also favoured Paolini.

Paolini served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.42. She was broken to 30. I removed my liability at 1.62, leaving the green on Mertens.
0-1

Mertens saved 2 break points but recovered to hold.
0-2

Paolini held to 30.
1-2

Mertens was then broken to 15. I stayed with my free bet on Mertens.
2-2

Paolini held to 0 and then broke Mertens to 30. I laid Paolini at 1.09.
3-2
4-2

Paolini was broken to 30. I removed liability at 1.22.
4-3

Mertens held to 30. I hedged at 1.35.
4-4

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
5-4
5-5
6-5

Mertens saved 3 match points in the next game but recovered to hold and take the set into a tie break.
6-6

Mertens took a tight tie break to take the set.
6-7

Stats for the second set were fairly even with a slight edge to Paolini. Paolini was priced at 1.91 after the set.

Mertens served first in the third set. In WTA third sets, I am waiting to lay the player who breaks first, as long as the price is decent.

The first 3 games were holds with no break points.
0-1
1-1
1-2

Paolini was broken after being taken to deuce twice. I laid Mertens at 1.34
In WTA, the player who breaks first in set 3 gets broken back around 50% of the time.
1-3

Mertens was broken to 0. I hedged at 1.87.
2-3

Paolini was broken after saving 2 break points. I laid Mertens at 1.29.
I don’t have stats for how often a player gets broken back twice in the third set but I had some green to “play” with and the price was decent.
2-4

Mertens faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged at 1.48. We were potentially close to the end of the match if Mertens held serve.
Mertens DID recover to hold after 3 deuces.
2-5

Paolini held to 30. Mertens served out the match to 15.
3-5
3-6.

Mertens won 4-6, 7-6, 6-3.