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WTA Challenger, Dubrovnik
Quevedo v Erjavec 1.66
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %’s are even.

Quevedo had a 2 sets win as underdog in the 1st round.
ITF title in Aug. CH q final in July. ITF title in June. ITF final in April.

Erjavec had a close 2 sets win over De Reales as favourite in the 1st round.
CH semi final this month. CH semi in Feb. CH semi in Nov. 2 CH titles in Sep.

12 month Challenger stats favour Erjavec overall. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Erjavec.
Quevedo is a capable clay player but has played just 1 clay match in 2026.
Back Erjavec around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Erjavec in 3 sets.

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Update: This match was badly delayed and I was not able to trade it. I had a live stream for Tradeshark and Tennis Profits members at 5 pm and I needed to get something to eat before the stream.

I have rules that I apply to my trades and I will use those to suggest how it could have been traded. I took a screen shot of Erjavec’s price in the first set which will help.

Quevedo served first. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the next game, Erjavec went 15-40 behind. I would normally wait for the favourite to be broken before backing but it looks like the target price was reached at 15-40 so I would have place a back on Erjavec. She saved 4 break points in that game and eventually held. Her price after the hold would have been close to the suggested price for removing liability (1.70).

Due to Quevedo missing 4 break points in the previous game, I would most likely NOT have reduced liability as there was a chance that Quevedo would struggle in the next service game. In fact, she held to 15! That was followed by an easy hold for Erjavec.

in the next game, Quevedo went 15-40 behind and I would have removed liability, leaving a free bet on Erjavec. She won the next 3 games (2 holds and a break) to take the set. I would have hedged after the second break at 5-2. Probably around 1.25-1.30.

Stats for the set were poor for Quevedo and I would not have been convinced that she was going to fight back. I think it is likely that I would not have continued into the second set.

Quevedo served first in the second set and held to 30. Erjavec was taken to deuce in the next game but held. In the next game, Quevedo was broken to 15. That was followed by an easy hold for Erjavec.

Erjavec broke again to lead 4-1. There were no more breaks in the set.

Erjavec won 6-2, 6-2.