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WTA Madrid Challenger
Selekhmeteva 1.80 v Kudermetova
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Kudermetova 1-0 (Oct 2019, indoors, 2 sets). Clay win %’s favour Selekhmeteva.

Selekhmeteva needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.12 favourite. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
CH q final in Oct. CH title in Sep. CH final and semi final in July.

Kudermetova had a 2 sets win over Sherif in the 1st round as underdog. Easy win over Ponchet as favourite in the 2nd round.

12 month CH stats favour Kudermetova on serve. Stats for the tournament also favour her overall.
Lay Selekhmeteva around 1.50 and remove liability at 1.90. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Kudermetova in 3 sets.

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Update: Selekhmeteva started at 1.66. Kudermetova served first. She went 15-40 behind. The price was not very attractive to lay at 1.54 (given the lower start price) so I waited for the break. She was broken and I laid Selekhmeteva at 1.47.

In the next game, Selekhmeteva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken back. I removed liability at 1.78, leaving the green on Kudermetova. The next 5 games were holds. Selekhmeteva did face a break point when she served at 2-3 but she recovered to hold. I thought about hedging at that break point but decided against it.

Selekhmeteva served at 3-4 and was broken. I hedged at 1.46 on Kudermetova’s ladder (3.15 on Selekhmeteva’s ladder). Kudermetova served for the set. She went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold.

Stats for the set had Selekhmeteva with the better first serve percentage at 67% but she had a low(ish) first serve points won % at 58%. Kudermetova had a low first serve percentage of 53%. She only lost 3 points on her first serve. Both players were below the tour average on second serves points won.

Selekhmeteva served first in the second set. I let her have her service game before laying Kudermetova. She was broken to 30. I laid Kudermetova at 1.21.

In the next game, Kudermetova saved 2 break points but was eventually broken. I backed her at 1.35 with the same stake that I had used for the lay. This left me with green on both players but a bigger green on Kudermetova.

In the next game, Selekhmeteva was broken again. I laid Kudermetova at 1.18. She was then broken to 30 in the next game and I backed her at 1.29 using the same stake. Selekhmeteva then held after being taken to deuce. Kudermetova served at 2-3 and was broken to 30.

I backed Kudermetova at 1.76. Selekhmeteva was broken in the next game and I hedged at 1.48.

The next 4 games were holds of serve. Kudermetova served at 5-6. She faced and saved 2 break points / set points but managed to hold.

They went into a tie break. Kudermetova won the tie break 7-3.

Kudermetova won 6-3, 7-6.