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WTA Stuttgart
Rybakina 1.82 v Andreeva
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Andreeva 2-1. Most recent March 2025, hard, Andreeva in 2. She won on hard in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Rybakina won on hard in 2023, 3 sets.

Rybakina had a 2 sets win over Shnaider in the 2nd round. 3rd set tie break win over Fernandez in the q final.
She reached the 4th Round at the French Open 2025, Title in Strasbourg 2025.

Andreeva reached the 2nd round last season. 3 sets win over Ostapenko in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Parks in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Swiatek in the q final.
Title in Linz 2026, Quarter finals at the French Open 2025, Quarter finals in Rome 2025, Quarter finals in Madrid 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Rybakina on serve. Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Andreeva around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Rybakina in 3 sets.

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Update: Rybakina served first. the first 3 games were holds. Rybakina was taken to deuce in her second service game.

In the next game, Andreeva served at 1-2 and went 15-40 behind. I laid Rybakina at 1.40. Andreeva recovered to hold serve. I removed liability at 1.80, leaving the green on Rybakina. Rybakina then had an easy hold to lead 3-2.

Andreeva was then broken to 30. I laid Rybakina at 1.27. I had no liability due to the free bet on her. In the next game, Rybakina went 15-40 behind and I backed Rybakina at 1.42 using the same stake that I had used to lay her. This gave me an increased free bet on Rybakina. She saved one of the break points but was broken to 30.

The next 4 games were easy holds. Andreeva served at 5-6 and was broken to 15 to give Rybakina the set.

Stats for the set were much better for Rybakina. With her low first serve percentage and low 1st serve points won percentages, Andreeva had done well to only be beaten by a difference of 1 break. Her second serve points won percentage was above the tour average at 60%.

I had a decent free bet on my favoured player. I was not in a rush to lay her. Rybakina served first and held to 30. In the next game, Andreeva saved 3 break points but was eventually broken. I left the free bet to run.

Rybakina was taken to deuce in the next game and I was thinking that maybe I should have laid her! However, she held. In the next game, Andreeva was broken again, this time to 30.

Rybakina then held to 0 to lead 5-0. Andreeva held to 0. Rybakina served out the set and the match to 0.

Rybakina won 7-5, 6-1.