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Cap Cana Challenger
Bellucci 1.54 v Navone
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Bellucci.

Bellucci lost in the 1st round last year. Easy win in the 1st round as favourite. 2 sets win over Hurkacz in the 2nd round as underdog. 2 sets win over Collignon as underdog in the q final. 2 sets win over Walton in the semi final.
Quarter final in Acapulco 2026. CH semi in Jan.

Navone had a 3 sets win as 1.17 favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win in the 2nd round as slight favourite. 2 sets win over Royer as slight underdog in the q final. 3rd set tie break win over Blockx in the semi final.
3rd round in Winston Salem 2025.

12 month ATP stats favour Bellucci on serve. 12 month CH stats favour him on serve. 2026 stats also favour him on serve. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Bellucci around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Match prediction: Bellucci in 3 sets.

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Update: Bellucci served first. He went 15-40 behind but recovered to hold. In the next game, Navone was broken to 15. I laid Bellucci at 1.29.

In the next game, Bellucci was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.47, leaving the green on Navone. Navone then held after being taken to deuce. The score was now 2-2.

In the next game, Bellucci went 15-40 behind. I hedged evenly at 1.88. He was broken to 30. The next 2 games were holds.

Navone served at 4-3 and was broken to 30. The next 2 games were holds of serve. Bellucci served at 5-5 and was broken.

With Navone leading 6-5, the match was suspended due to the “heat rule”. The match was suspended for an hour and 10 minutes. If I had not already been hedged, I would have hedged when the suspension happened. You never know how a player will handle a long delay.

When the match restarted, Navone held to 0 to take the set.

I was not at my desk when the match restarted and did not enter the market again.

Bellucci, apparently, did not handle the delay well and went 0-4 behind in the second set. Navone moved to a 5-1 lead. Bellucci took the next 3 games and Navone easily held when serving at 5-4 to take the match.

Navone won 7-5, 6-4.

 

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Santiago Challenger
Boscardin Dias v Bueno 1.62
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent June 2025, clay, Bueno in 2. Boscardin Dias won by retirement in Feb 2025. 12 month clay win 5’s favour Boscardin Dias. Bueno leads in 2026.

Boscardin Dias had an easy win in the 1st round. Tight 3 sets win in the 2nd round as slight underdog.
CH q final last week. CH q finals in Feb and Jan. CH final in Oct.

Bueno had a 2 sets win over Varillas in the 1st round as underdog. Easy win in the 2nd round as favourite.
CH semi in Feb. CH semi in Nov.

12 month stats favour Boscardin Dias on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour Dias on serve. Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Bueno around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Boscardin Dias in 3 sets.

Update: Boscardin Dias served first and held to 0. Bueno also held to 0. In the next game, Boscardin Dias was broken to 30. Liquidity was very low at 12K matched but there were traders involved in the match and no gaps between prices. I laid Bueno at 1.41.

In the next game, Bueno was broken to 15 and I removed most of my liability at 1.68, leaving the green on Boscardin Dias.

Boscardin Dias held to 30 in the next game. Bueno was then broken to 30 and I hedged at 1.65 on Boscardin Dias’ ladder (2.52 on Bueno’s ladder).
Bueno immediately broke back. he was broken again and broke back again! The set went to a tie break which Boscardin Dias won.

Stats for the set favoured Boscardin Dias.

Bueno served first in set 2. He was broken to 30. In the pre match assessment, I had expected 3 sets. I laid Boscardin Dias at 1.32.

In the next game, Boscardin Dias faced a break point but recovered to hold. Bueno then held to 0. In the next game, Boscardin Dias went 15-40 behind and I backed him at 1.54 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This gave me green on both players but a larger green on Boscardin Dias. He saved one of the break points but was broken.

In the next game, Bueno was broken. Boscardin Dias then held to 0 and then broke Bueno again to lead 5-2. He successfully served out the set.

Boscardin Dias won 7-6, 6-2.