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Trading Tips file 5th May

WTA Rome
Cocciaretto 1.70 v Kraus
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Clay win %’s favour Kraus.

Cocciaretto reached the 2nd round last year.
2nd round in Rouen 2026. 3rd round in Charleston 2026. CH title in July. 2nd round of the French Open 2025.

Kraus has come through the qual rounds.
CH final in April. CH title in Nov.

12 month WTA stats favour Kraus overall. 12 month CH stats favour Cocciaretto. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Cocciaretto around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Cocciaretto in 3 sets.

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Update: Cocciaretto drifted from 1.70 to 1.82 pre match. Cocciaretto served first and was broken to 30. Her price moved to 2.20 and I backed her.
0-1

Kraus was broken to 15 and I removed half the liability at 1.79.
1-1

Cocciaretto then held to 0 and broke Kraus to 30. I removed the rest of my liability at 1.40.
2-1
3-1

The next 3 games were easy holds.
4-1
4-2
5-2

Kraus was broken to 0 to give the set to Cocciaretto. Cocciaretto’s price dropped to 1.19.
6-2

Stats for the set were obviously stronger for Cocciaretto. Her first serve percentage was a little low but overall, solid numbers. Kraus’ stats were very weak.

I had expected 3 sets pre match though it looked unlikely if the second set was the same as the first. A player, having easily won the first set can switch off a little at the start of the next set. Cocciaretto was serving first so I placed a small lay at 1.19. In a repeat of the first set, she was broken to 30. I backed her at 1.29 using the same stake that I used for the lay. This added a little to my free bet on Cocciaretto.
0-1

Krause was immediately broken back. I left the free bet to run.
1-1

The next 7 games were holds although Cocciaretto was down 15-40 in 2 of her service games.
2-1
2-2
3-2
3-3
4-3
4-4
5-4

Kraus served at 4-5. She saved 5 break points/match points. She faced a 6th and this time was broken.
6-4

Cocciaretto won 6-2, 6-4.