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WTA Limoges Challenger
Friedsam v Jacquemot
Due to start at 5:30pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

The confidence rating of 6.5 was really due to the fact that I was having a problem predicting the winner. I expected a tight match.

Friedsam served first. She was broken to 30. Jacquemot’s price only dropped from 1.51 to 1.42 for the break. This was due to most scoreboards showing the incorrect server for the whole of this match. That also meant that the in play stats were useless. If you have seen any of my videos, you will know I monitor the in play stats constantly. That made it interesting!

The break should have moved the price to my target price to lay Jacquemot. If she could hold, the market would see that as a break and we would get a decent lay price. She held to 0 and her price dropped to 1.34. Near enough to my target of 1.30 and I laid Jacquemot.

In the next game, Friedsam had an easy hold to 0. Jacquemot’s price moved to 1.45. Easy hold for Jacquemot in the next game. She led 3-1.

Friedsam was broken in the next game. She hadn’t had a bp in the set and had been broken twice. I exited at 1.22. Jacquemot held easily to get to 5-1. Friedsam had an easy hold to 15 to get to 2-5. Jacquemot was going to serve for the set. When I am deciding whether or not to lay the set 1 winner, I look at how the losing player ended the set. Friedsam did have a bp in the next game but Jacquemot held in a long game that saw 3 deuces. Those last 2 games prompted me to go with my pre match assessment that this would be a tight match.

Friedsam served first in set 2. She faced a break point at 30-40 and I laid Jacquemot at 1.16, hoping that Friedsam would recover to hold. She did recover and held serve. Jacquemot’s price moved to 1.27.

In the next game, Jacquemot went 15-40 behind. Her price hit 1.43. That was enough to take me into profit. I wanted a higher price so I could potentially hedge for a decent return. I held my position. Jacquemot recovered to hold! In the next game, Friedsam held to 30. Maybe she would break in the next game.

In her next service game, Jacquemot again went 15-40 down. If she didn’t break this time, I was intending to take a small loss. A player missing break points in consecutive games is more likely to get frustrated and get broken themselves. This time, Jacquemot saved the first bp but was broken. Jacquemot’s price reached 1.55. I removed all liability and left the green on Friedsam. We were already close to their start prices. If Friedsam could hold serve in the next game, I would hedge.

Friedsam didn’t have an easy service game. She faced a break point but did eventually hold. The price hit 1.64 and I hedged evenly. Friedsam would get another break to take the set 6-2.

I wasn’t involved in the third set as I had to pick my wife up from work.

In the 3rd set, Jacquemot broke to lead 3-2. She held serve in the next game. Friedsam saved a bp in the next game but held to reach 3-4.

Jacquemot served at 4-3. It was a tough game but he held without facing a bp. In the next game, Jacquemot had 2 match points when Friedsam went 15-40 behind. She recovered to hold.

Jacquemot had 2 more match points when she served at 5-4. Should could not take them and was eventually broken. 5-5! Friedsam was broken to 30 in the next game. Jacquemot would have another chance to serve for the match. There is a pattern in tennis that if a player is broken when serving for a set, if they earn the right to serve for it again (ie get another break, rather than just having been a double break ahead), they usually do a much better job the second time. That pattern occurred and she held to 0.

Jacquemot won 6-2, 2-6, 7-5.