ATP Paris Masters
Djokovic 1.51 v Vacherot
Due to start at 1 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Vacherot 1-0 (Oct 2025, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s favour Vacherot.

Djokovic reached the 2nd round in Basel 2026. Title in Athens 2026.

Vacherot reached the Quarter final last season.
He won the Title in Basel 2026.

12 month indoor stats favour Djokovic. 12 month hard stats favour Djokovic.
Djokovic needs a strong result in Paris to qualify for the ATP Finals.
Back Djokovic around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Djokovic in 3 sets.

Update: Vacherot served first. He was taken to deuce but held.
0-1

The next 10 games were holds with no break points.
5-6

Djokovic went 15-40 behind. As I favoured him to win, I placed a small back of Djokovic at 2.30. He saved the break points but faced another. He saved that one too and went on to hold. I removed liability at 1.72, leaving the green on Djokovic.
6-6

Vacherot won a tight tie break 7-5.
6-7

Stats for the set were a little better for Djokovic although he was the only one who faced break points.
After the set, Vacherot was priced at 1.56/1.57.

Djokovic served first in the second set. As I already had a small position on him, I let him have his serve before laying Vacherot. I was a little concerned at Djokovic facing 3 break points in his last service game.
Djokovic was broken to 30. I laid Vacherot at 1.23.
0-1

The next 2 games were holds. An easy hold for Vacherot. Djokovic was taken to deuce.
1-2

Djokovic took an MTO

Vacherot saved a break point. He faced another and was broken. I removed liability and left the green on Djokovic.
2-2

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
3-2
3-3
4-3

Vacherot then took an MTO. When they resumed, he faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged at 2.26 on Vacherot’s ladder. Vacherot recovered to hold.
4-4

Djokovic saved 3 break points but managed to hold.
5-4

The next 2 games were holds.
5-5
6-5

Vacherot was broken to 30 to give the set to Djokovic.
7-5

Stats for both players dropped in that set. In particular, Vacherot won just 4 of 14 (29%) of points on second serve.
After the set, Djokovic was priced at 1.56/1.57.

I was not involved in the third set. It was a very one-sided set. Vacherot was broken twice and had to save 2 break points in his other service game.

Djokovic won 6-7, 7-5, 6-1.