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WTA Limoges Challenger Semi Final
Bucsa 1.32 v Kalinina
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Bucsa served first and was broken to 15. Her price went to 1.60. Often, if my favoured player gets broken early and doesn’t reach my target price, I will back them with reduced stake. 1.60 was a poor price to enter so I waited.

Kalinina had an easy hold to 15. Bucsa’s price went to 1.76. I try not to read too much into the first 2 games but I wasn’t in a rush to enter just yet. Bucsa was broken to 30 to trail 0-3. I backed Bucsa at 2.18.

In the next game, Kalinina went 0-40 down. I removed a little liability at 1.78. Kalinina saved 2 of the break points but was broken on the 3rd one. The price was still 1.78. I gave Bucsa chance to hold. She had only won 3 points in her first 2 service games so it was far from certain. She held to 15. Her price moved to 1.59. I wanted to hold out for the 1.50 price to remove the remaining liability.

Kalinina went 0-15 behind and Bucsa’s price hit 1.51 and remove my liability, leaving the green on Bucsa. Kalinina held to 30 to lead 4-2. In the next game, Bucsa held to 0. The next 2 games were holds to 15. Kalinina served for the set at 5-4 and held to 30.

Bucsa’s price reached 2.08 at the end of the set. She was serving first in the second set. I already had the free bet on her so did nothing. She was broken to 0! I laid Kalinina at 1.47. She now led by a set and a break which is usually a good time to lay the leading player. Kalinina went 0-30 behind in the next game. She recovered to 30-30 but was broken to 30. To remove liability again, I laid Bucsa at 2.24.

In the next game, Bucsa was broken again to 0! There was no stream for the match but maybe she was struggling physically. I didn’t want to enter again. I had the choice of staying with the free bet or hedging. I hedged at 1.39 on Kalinina’s ladder.

For the rest of the set, Kalinina did not face another break point. When Bucsa served at 2-4, She went 0-40 down. She saved 4 bp’s in that game but held. I wondered if that would be a turning point but Kalinina held to 30 in the next game and then broke Bucsa again to take the set and the match.

Kalinina won 6-4, 6-3.

My prediction of the result was completely wrong but there were enough swings to come away with a profit.