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WTA Cluj,
Raducanu v Cirstea 1.81
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Raducanu 1-0 (July 2021, grass, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s favour Raducanu.

Raducanu played few indoor matches. She had won 9 of 15. Easy win over Minnen in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Juvan in the 2nd round where she went 0-5 behind before remembering how to play. Easy win over Chwalinska in the q final. She needed 3 sets against Oliynykova in the semi final.

Cirstea lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Rakhimova in the 1st round. Very easy win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. 2 close sets win over Potapova in the q final. Easy win over Snigur in the semi final.
She had played 1 match indoors in the last 12 months.

This is the only indoor tournament either has played in the last 12 months.
Stats for the tournament favour Cirstea on serve.
Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Cirstea.
Lay Raducanu around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00 to 2.20.

Match prediction: Cirstea in 3 sets.

Update: Cirstea served first and held to 0. In the next game, Raducanu went 0-40 behind. As I was expecting a close match, I laid Cirstea at 1.33.

Raducanu saved the 3 break points. I removed half the liability at 1.50. Raducanu would face and save 2 more break points. She was broken on the 6th break point of the game. In the next game, Cirstea was taken to deuce but held. Raducanu served at 0-3 and faced a break point. She saved it. When she faced another, I hedged for a small loss at 1.20. This time, she was broken.

Raducanu had complained of fatigue after her last match and said she was suffering with a bad cold which was affecting her sleep.

Cirstea had an easy hold to lead 5-0 and broke Raducanu to take the set 6-0.

Raducanu’s stats in that set were terrible. Her first serve % was good at 75% but she won 43% of first serve points and 29% of second serve points. In comparison, Cirstea had a lowish first serve % of 59% but won 80% of first serve points and 71% of second serve points.

I was not keen to lay Cirstea in the second set.

Cirstea served first and held to 0. In the next game, Raducanu was broken again. I need a good reason to turn down the opportunity to lay a player when they are a set and a break behind. Raducanu was barely competing so I stayed out.

In the next game, Cirstea was broken to 0!

Raducanu then had her first hold of serve to get back to 2-2. Cirstea was taken to deuce in the next game but held. I was wondering if I should lay Raducanu if she managed another hold in the next game.

Raducanu was broken to 15.

Cirstea held to 0 to lead 5-2 and she broken Raducanu to 15 to take the set, the match and the title.

Cirstea won 6-0, 6.2.