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WTA Madrid
Baptiste v Paolini 1.71
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. most recent May 2024, clay, Paolini in 2. Baptiste won on hard in 2021, 2 sets. Clay win %’s favour Paolini.

Baptiste reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the French Open 2025, 3rd Round in Rome 2025.

Paolini reached the 3rd round last season. 3 sets win over Siegemund in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the French Open 2025, Title in Rome 2025.

12 month stats favour Baptiste on serve. 2026 stats also favour her ono serve.
Lay Paolini around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80. Good chance of 3 sets.

Match prediction: Baptiste in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Baptiste served first and was broken to 15. I laid Paolini at 1.44.
0-1

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
0-2
1-2
1-3
2-3

Paolini served next. She faced a break point at 40-A. Her price went to 1.57. I could have removed some liability but chose to wait for the break. She saved the break point but faced another break point and this time she was broken. I removed most of the liability at 1.76. I left the green on Baptiste.
3-3

In the next game, Baptiste faced 4 break points but recovered to hold.
4-3

The next 4 games were holds with no break points.
4-4
5-4
5-5
6-5

Paolini served at 5-6 and was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.40 on Baptiste’s ladder (3.40 on Paolini’s ladder).
7-5

Stats for the set were arguably better for Paolini. She had the better first serve percentage at 72%. She only won 55% of first serve points but was above the tour average on second serves won at 58%.

Baptiste had a lower first serve percentage at 57% and was only winning 39% of second serve points. That isn’t a great combination.

Baptiste served first in the second set. I laid her at 1.41. She held to 0.
1-0

In the next game, Paolini saved 2 break points and held.
1-1

Baptiste served next and went 15-40 behind. I backed Baptiste at 1.53 using the same stake that I had used for the lay. This gave me green on Paolini and a bigger green on Baptiste. Baptiste saved 4 break points in that game and held.
2-1

The next 2 games were holds.
2-2
3-2

Paolini served next. She faced a break point but saved it. She saved another break point but faced a 3rd and was broken.
4-2

The next 3 games were holds.
5-2
5-3
6-3.

Baptiste won 7-5, 6-3.