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ATP Buenos Aires
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1.59 v Martinez Portero
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Martinez 1-0 (Feb 2020, clay, 2 sets). Clay win 5’s favour Cerundolo.

Cerundolo reached the 2nd round as qualifier last season. easy win over Altmaier in the 1st round.
Final in Gstaad 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

Martinez reached the Semi final last season. Easy win in the 1st round.
2nd rounds in Rome, Barcelona and Q final in Bucharest 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Cerundolo in 2 sets.

Update: Cerundolo served first. The first 2 games were holds to 15. In the next game, Cerundolo was broken. His price hit 2.02 and I backed him.

The next game was very similar for Martinez. He was 40-15 up but was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.60.

The next 3 games were holds. Martinez served at 3-4. He faced a break point. I hedged evenly at 1.30. Martinez recovered to hold.

After 2 more holds, Cerundolo served at 5-5. He saved a break point but faced another which Martinez converted. I placed a small back on Cerundolo at 2.24. In the next game, Martinez was serving for the set. He went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 1.62. He was broken and the set went to a tie break.
Cerundolo led 5-3 in the tie break but lost the next 4 points to lose the set.

Cerundolo had not served well in that set. His first serve % was good at 74% but he won just 56% of points on the first serve. Martinez also found 74% of first serves but had won 69% of points on it. His second serve was poor at 25% of points won (3 from 12) but as his first serve % was good, he got away with a below par second serve.
I had some profit from the first set and I used some of it to lay Martinez at 1.63 at the start of the second set. I needed to see a real improvement in Cerundolo’s game but at least my position was risk free.

The first 5 games were holds of serve with no break points. Cerundolo served at 2-3. He went 15-40 behind. Martinez’ price went down to 1.20. If i had exited at that point, my profit was virtually nothing so I stayed with it. Cerundolo was broken. Martinez held to 30 and led 5-2.

In the next game, Cerundolo had an easy hold. In the next game, Martinez went 0-40 behind when serving for the set/match. After he was broken, his price was at 1.39. I could have hedged and saved most of the profit from the first set but as I had favoured Cerundolo pre match and felt he had some momentum, I stayed in.
Cerundolo served at 4-5 and was broken! Ah well. Tiny profit. At least it wasn’t a red.

Martinez won 7-6, 6-4.