ATP Barcelona, Second Round Predictions

These predictions are aimed at traders rather than punters. When assessing a match, I initially look for 2 things. Who do I think will win and how competitive will the other player be?
Use them for straight bets if you wish but please bear in mind that is not what they are intended for.

**For previous rounds, if predictions were correct, I have left them in blue. Corrections are in black.
The number in brackets is the confidence rating out of 10 from the Trading Tips email

Barcelona
 
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Trading Tip – ATP Munich, Cilic v Altmaier

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ATP Munich
Cilic 1.71 v Altmaier
Due to start at 2 pm

Confidence rating 7/10

Cilic 1-0 (Jan 2026, hard, straight sets). Clay win %’s favour Altmaier.

Cilic reached the 2nd round in Monte Carlo.

Altmaier reached the 2nd round last season.
Quarter finals in Bucharest 2026, 4th Round at the French Open 2025, 3rd Round in Monte Carlo 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Altmaier on serve.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Cilic around 1.40 and remove liability at 1.80.

Match prediction: Altmaier in 3 sets

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Cilic ‘s start price was 1.65. Altmaier served first. The first 4 games were holds of serve. Altmaier served at 2-2. He faced 2 break points but recovered to hold.

In the next game, Cilic was broken to 30. I placed a small lay on Altmaier at 1.45. Altmaier then held to 15. Cilic served at 2-5 and went 15-40 behind. I hedged for a loss at 1.29. Cilic was broken and Altmaier won the set.

Stats for the set were weak for Cilic. 56% of points won on first serve and 33% on second serve. Altmaier’s stats were much stronger. 72% of first serve points won and 75% of second serve points won. Both had faced 2 break points.

Set 1 stats


I did not want to go against my favoured player. Poor serve stats from Cilic was a bad sign. I did not enter again and accepted the small loss.

The second set was very tight. Only one game contained break points. Cilic served at 2-3. He saved the first break point but Altmaier took the second one. That was enough to give him the set and the match.

Altmaier won 6-2, 6-3.

 
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