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WTA Miami
Baptiste v Ostapenko 1.89
Due to start at 6 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are even.

Baptiste reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Maria in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Samsonova in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Svitolina in the 3rd round as huge underdog.
Semi finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026.
Baptiste reached the 3rd round last year. 2 sets win over Maria in the 1st round.
Semi finals in Abu Dhabi 2026, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2026.

Ostapenko lost in the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Yastremska in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Paolini as underdog in the 3rd round.
Semi finals in Doha 2026.

12 month stats favour Baptiste on serve. 2026 stats also favour her on serve.
Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Baptiste in 3 sets. The confidence rating is 6.5/10 but this should be a good trading match.

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Update: Baptiste started the match price at 1.97.
The first 3 games were holds. Baptiste saved a break point in the first game. Ostapenko served at 1-2. She saved 2 break points but was broken. I laid Baptiste at 1.44.

In the next game, Baptiste went 0-40 behind and I removed my liability at 1.70, leaving the profit on Baptiste. She saved 2 of the break points but was broken back. In the next game, Ostapenko went 0-40 behind. she saved 2 of the break points but was broken.

The next 2 games were holds. Baptiste served for the set at 5-3. She saved 3 break points but eventually held. Baptiste was priced 1.28 after the set.

Both players had a lowish first serve percentage. First and second serve points won percentages favoured Baptiste.

Ostapenko served first in set 2. I waited for her to have her service game before Laying Baptiste. Ostapenko held to 15. I laid Baptiste at 1.39.

The next 2 games were holds to 30. In the next game, Baptiste went 0-40 behind and I removed my liability by backing Baptiste at 1.68 using the same stake used for the lay. This increased my free bet on Baptiste. She saved the 3 break points and held serve.

The next 2 games were holds. Ostapenko served at 3-3 and faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged at 1.30. She saved that break point but faced another and was broken. There were no more breaks in the set.

Baptiste won 6-3, 6-4.