WTA Sao Paolo
Blinkova 1.91 v Lee
Due to start at 4:30
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s favour Lee.

Blinkova reached a CH final last week. 2nd round in Cincinnati 2026. 2 more WTA 2nd rounds in 2026. Title in Jiujiang 2025.

Lee reached a CH q final last week. CH title in Aug.

12 month WTA and CH stats favour Lee on serve.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Blinkova around 1.55 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Lee in 3 sets.

Update: Lee served first and was broken to 15. Blinkova’s price only dropped to 1.60. I waited for a better price.
1-0

Blinkova held to 30. I placed a small lay on her at 1.46.
2-0

Lee went 15-40 behind. I added to the lay at 1.33. She saved 1 of the break points but was broken.
3-0

Blinkova was taken to 30-30 but held. I hedged for a loss at 1.25. I needed to see some improvement from Lee if I was going to get involved in the second set.
4-0

The next 2 games were holds.
4-1
5-1

Lee was broken for a third set to give the set to Blinkova.
6-1

Stats for the set were obviously better for Blinkova. Lee didn’t look interested. She had a low first serve percentage and only won 9 points on serve. She did not have a break point on Blinkova’s serve.

My reason for favouring Lee was that she had better serve stats in the last year.

6-1 stats will often turn around in the second set but I was not eager to enter again. I watched the start of the second set and hoped to get a lay if Blinkova went a set and a break ahead.

Blinkova served first and held to 15. She then broke Lee to 0. I laid Blinkova at 1.05.
2-0

The next 2 games were holds to 15.
3-0
3-1

Blinkova was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.13. This almost removed my red.
I left the match alone after that.
3-2

Lee was broken again to 0
4-2

The next 3 games were holds.
5-2
5-3
6-3

Blinkova won 6-1, 6-3.