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WTA Madrid
Potapova v Ostapenko 1.92
Due to start at 8:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Ostapenko 2-0. Most recent May 2024, clay, 2 sets. She won on grass in 2023, 3 sets. Clay win %’s favour Potapova.

Potapova reached the 4th round last year. This year she lost in the qual rounds. Easy win in the 2nd round as lucky loser.
Final in Linz 2026. 2nd round of the French Open 2025. 2nd round in Rome.

Ostapenko lost in the 2nd round last season. 2 sets win over Waltert in the 2nd round.
3rd Round at the French Open 2025, 4th Round in Rome 2025, Title in Stuttgart 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Potapova overall.
Chance of 3 sets.
Lay Ostapenko around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10.

Match prediction: Potapova in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Potapova served first and was broken. I laid Ostapenko at 1.63.
0-1

In the next game, Ostapenko was broken to 15. I removed most of the liability at 1.89, leaving the green on Potapova.
1-1

In the next game, Potapova was broken again. I laid Ostapenko at 1.63.
1-2

Ostapenko held to 30
1-3

The next 2 games were holds with each player having to save 2 break points.
2-3
2-4

Potapova held to 0.
3-4

Ostapenko went 15-40 behind. I hedged at 1.93 on Ostapenko’s ladder. she saved 2 break points before holding serve.
3-5

Potapova saved 2 break points but held.
4-5

Ostapenko served out the set to 30.
4-6

Stats for the set were pretty average for both players. Low first serve percentages. Average first serve points won percentages and decent second serve stats.

Ostapenko was priced at 1.35 after the first set. Potapova served first in the second set and was broken to 15. I laid Ostapenko at 1.20.
0-1

Ostapenko was then broken to 15. I hedged at 1.36.
1-1

The next 2 games were holds to 30.
2-1
2-2

Potapova was then broken to 30. I laid Ostapenko at 1.20.
2-3

Ostapenko was then broken to 0! I let the lay run. Surely, Potapova would hold eventually!
3-3

The next 3 games were all holds without any break points.
4-3
4-4
5-4

Ostapenko was serving to stay in the set. She saved one break point but faced another and was broken. I hedged at 2.24.
6-4

Potapova’s stats in the second set improved a little overall. Her first serve percentage remained a little low. Ostapenko improved her first serve percentage but won 47% of first serve points and 30% of second serves.

After set 2, Potapova was priced at 1.80. She served first in the third set. This time, she held to 30!
1-0

Ostapenko was then broken to 0. I laid Potapova at 1.23. In WTA, the player who break first in a deciding set gets broken back 49.6% of the time on clay.
2-0

The next 2 games were holds to 0.
3-0
3-1

Potapova was broken after being taken to deuce. I hedged at 1.43.
3-2

Ostapenko then held to 15.
3-3

Potapova was broken to 0. I laid Ostapenko at 1.38. The above stat only applies for the first break of a third set but there had been enough breaks in the match to make this worth a try. Also, I favoured Potapova in the pre match assessment.
3-4

Ostapenko was broken to 15. I hedged at 2.02.
4-4

Potapova had to save a break point in the next game but held serve.
5-4

Ostapenko served to stay in the match but was broken to 15.
6-4

Potapova won 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.