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Download link: Trading Tips 24th July

ATP Estoril
Blockx v Darderi 1.59
Due to the start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %’s are even.

Blockx had a 3rd set tie break win over Jacquet in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Burruchaga in the q final.
He reached the 3rd Round in Rome 2026, Semi finals in Madrid 2026, 3rd Round in Monte Carlo 2026.

Darderi had an easy win in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Faria in the q final.
He reached the Final in Bastad 2026, Quarter finals in Hamburg 2026, Semi finals in Rome 2026, Semi finals in Marrakech 2026, Title in Santiago 2026, Final in Buenos Aires 2026, Title in Umag 2025.

12 month ATP stats favour Blockx on serve. Return stats are significantly better for Darderi.
Back Darderi around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Darderi in in 3 sets.

Embed from Getty Images

Update: Darderi served first. He was broken to 0. I backed Darderi at 2.20.
1-0

Blockx was broken to 30. I removed liability at 1.67, leaving the green on Darderi.
1-1

Darderi held to 15.
1-2

Blockx saved 2 break points but was broken. I hedged at 1.29.
1-3

Darderi saved a break point but was broken.
2-3

The next 3 games were holds with no break points.
3-3
3-4
4-4

Darderi was broken to 0. Blockx would served for the set. I placed a small back on Darderi at 2.74.
5-4

Blockx was broken to 15. I hedged at 1.69.
5-5

Darderi held to 15.
5-6

Blockx saved 2 break points but was eventually broken to give Darderi the set.
5-7

What a mess! Weak stats for both players.

Darderi served first in set 2. I didn’t really want to go against him as he had ended the first set slightly better than Blockx.

The first 3 games were holds with no break points.
0-1
1-1
1-2

Blockx was broken to 30. I laid Darderi at 1.06. The price was attractive and I had a decent profit from the first set.
1-3

The next 4 games were holds to love.
1-4
2-4
2-5
3-5

Darderi was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.19.
4-5

The next 3 games were easy holds and they went to a tie break.
5-5
5-6
6-6

Blockx easily won the tie break 7-1.
7-6

I did not trade the third set.

Blockx served first and was broken. The next 6 games were holds with just 1 break point.

Darderi was broken. They ended up in another tie break.
Darderi took a 4-0 lead in the tie break but managed to lose is 5-7!

Blockx won 5-7, 7-6, 7-6.