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ATP Metz
Cazaux v Norrie 1.78
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Norrie 1-0 (Oct 2025, hard, 3rd set tie break). Indoor win %’s are better for Norrie.

Cazaux lost in the qual rounds last year. 2 sets win over Mannarino in the 11st round. 2nd round in Paris. 2nd round in Montpellier. 3rd round in Paris 2024 as lucky loser.

Norrie reached the Final last season. 3 sets win over Royer in the 1st round as slight favourite. 3rd round in Paris. 2nd rounds in Vienna and Dallas.

12 month and 2025 indoor stats are stronger for Norrie. very good chance of 3 sets.
Back Norrie around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match Prediction: Norrie in 3 sets.

Update: Norrie broke serve in the first game of the match. I laid Norrie at 1.42.

The next 2 games were holds. Norrie served at 2-1. He faced a break point at 30-40. I would have liked to remove some liability but the price was only 1.44 so I waited. Norrie recovered to hold. Cazaux then had an easy hold to get to 2-3. In the next game, Norrie went 15-40 down. I removed some liability at 1.68 and hedged after the break at 2.02.

There were no more breaks in the set and they went to a tie break that Cazaux won easily 7-1.

I laid Cazaux at 1.33 at the start of set 2. Norrie was serving first and held to 0. When Cazaux served, he went 30-40 behind and I removed all my liability to leave a free bet on Norrie. Cazaux recovered to hold. Cazaux faced another break point in his next service game but recovered again.

Norrie served at 4-4 and faced a break point at 30-40. He also recovered to hold. It was feeling like the set would go to another tie break. There were no more break points and they did go to a tie break. I was tempted to hedge but as I had a free bet on my pre match selection, I shut my eyes and prayed!

Cazaux was twice a mini break ahead and was 5-4 ahead and serving. Norrie recovered to take the tie break 9-7. I hedged at 2.16 on Cazaux’ ladder. I did not enter in the 3rd set. Norrie took it easily with 2 breaks of serve.

Norrie won 6-7, 7-6, 6-2.

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