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WTA Ningbo
Sasnovich 1.83 v Sonmez
Due to start at 10:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Sonmez 2-1. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, Sasnovich in 2. Sonmez won on clay in 2024, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2 sets in Dec 2023. Hard win %’s are better for Sonmez.

Sasnovich has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round in Beijing.

Sonmez has come through the qual rounds. 3rd round in Beijing. Quarter finals in Merida 2025, Title in Merida 2024.

12 month stats favour Sonmez. 2025 stats are much more even. Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Sasnovich.
Back Sasnovich around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.. Lay set 1 winner.

Update: Sonmez got the first break to lead 2-0. I backed Sasnovich. In the next game, Sonmez went 0-40 behind and I removed some of my liability. Sasnovich broke to 30.
Sasnovich had to save 2 break points in the next game but recovered to hold. She then broke Sonmez again to leads 3-2. I removed almost all my liability, leaving the profit on Sasnovich. Sasnovich took the next 3 games to win the set.

I used small amount of my profit to lay Sasnovich but waited until Sonmez had held serve in the first game of set 2.
There would be just 1 break point, which was on Sasnovich’s serve, in the first 11 games of the second set. I have a rule that if I have laid the set winner, I exit if the score reaches 4-4. Over the years, that has saved me a lot of times. I did exit at 4-4 and hedged evenly.

A late break for Sonmez gave her the set.

In the third set, Sonmez was broken in the first game. I laid Sasnovich. In the WTA, a player broken first in set 3 will be broken back around 50% of the time. Sonmez would break back to get to 2-2 and I again Hedged evenly. Sonmez got another break to lead 5-3 and she successfully served for the match.

Sonmez won 2-6, 7-5, 6-3.