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WTA Miami
Gauff 1.95 v Muchova
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

Gauff 5-0. Most recent Jan 2026, hard, 3 sets. All their matches were on hard. The others were in straight sets. 12 month hard win %’s are even.

Gauff reached the 4th round last season. 3 sets win over Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Parks in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Bencic in the q final.
Semi finals in Dubai 2026, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Wuhan 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

Muchova reached the 3rd round last year. Tight 3 sets win over Osorio in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the 3rd round. Very easy win over Eala in the 4th round. 2 tight sets win over Mboko in the q final.
4th round in Indian Wells 2026, Title in Doha 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats favour Muchova on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour her on serve. Stats for the tournament favour Muchova on serve.
Very good chance of 3 sets.
Tough to pick a winner. Probably comes down to who fights most. Slight edge to Gauff.
Lay Muchova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Gauff in 3 sets.

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Update: Gauff served first and was broken to 15. I laid Muchova at 1.58.

In the next game, Gauff saved a break point and was taken to deuce 3 times but was eventually broken back. I removed liability by laying Gauff at 1.95, leaving a free bet on Gauff.

In the next game, Gauff saved 3 break points but recovered to hold. She broke Muchova again to leads 3-1. Gauff then held to 0 and broke Muchova yet again. she easily served out the set to 0.

I had been expecting a tight match but Muchova just had not shown up. I left the free bet to run into the second set.

Muchova served first in set 2 and was broken. In the next game, Gauff faced 2 break points but held. Muchova was then broken for a 5th time. I hedged at 1.05.

Gauff held to 30 to take a 4-0 lead. In the next game, Muchova saved a break point before holding for the first time in the match. Gauff saved 2 break points in the next game but held. Muchova served at 1-5 and was broken.

Gauff won 6-1, 6-1.

 

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WTA Challenger, Dubrovnik
Quevedo v Erjavec 1.66
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. 12 month clay win %’s are even.

Quevedo had a 2 sets win as underdog in the 1st round.
ITF title in Aug. CH q final in July. ITF title in June. ITF final in April.

Erjavec had a close 2 sets win over De Reales as favourite in the 1st round.
CH semi final this month. CH semi in Feb. CH semi in Nov. 2 CH titles in Sep.

12 month Challenger stats favour Erjavec overall. Recent performances on all surfaces favour Erjavec.
Quevedo is a capable clay player but has played just 1 clay match in 2026.
Back Erjavec around 2.10 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Erjavec in 3 sets.

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Update: This match was badly delayed and I was not able to trade it. I had a live stream for Tradeshark and Tennis Profits members at 5 pm and I needed to get something to eat before the stream.

I have rules that I apply to my trades and I will use those to suggest how it could have been traded. I took a screen shot of Erjavec’s price in the first set which will help.

Quevedo served first. She faced a break point but recovered to hold. In the next game, Erjavec went 15-40 behind. I would normally wait for the favourite to be broken before backing but it looks like the target price was reached at 15-40 so I would have place a back on Erjavec. She saved 4 break points in that game and eventually held. Her price after the hold would have been close to the suggested price for removing liability (1.70).

Due to Quevedo missing 4 break points in the previous game, I would most likely NOT have reduced liability as there was a chance that Quevedo would struggle in the next service game. In fact, she held to 15! That was followed by an easy hold for Erjavec.

in the next game, Quevedo went 15-40 behind and I would have removed liability, leaving a free bet on Erjavec. She won the next 3 games (2 holds and a break) to take the set. I would have hedged after the second break at 5-2. Probably around 1.25-1.30.

Stats for the set were poor for Quevedo and I would not have been convinced that she was going to fight back. I think it is likely that I would not have continued into the second set.

Quevedo served first in the second set and held to 30. Erjavec was taken to deuce in the next game but held. In the next game, Quevedo was broken to 15. That was followed by an easy hold for Erjavec.

Erjavec broke again to lead 4-1. There were no more breaks in the set.

Erjavec won 6-2, 6-2.