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WTA Challenger, Dubrovnik
Garcia v Sherif 1.75
Due to start at 12:00
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Nov 2021, clay, Sherif in a 3rd set tie break. Garcia won on clay in Oct 2019, 3 sets. Clay win %’s favour Garcia.

Garcia had an easy win in the 1st round. Easy wins in the 2nd round and q final.
CH semi in Oct. CH semi in Sep. She has had a lot of ITF success in the last year.

Sherif had 2 sets wins in the 1st and 2nd rounds. 3 sets win over Gormaz in the q final.
CH semi in Feb. CH final and 2 CH semis in Nov. CH semi in July.

12 month CH stats favour Sherif. Stats for their last 10 favour Garcia on serve. Fair chance of 3 sets.
Back Sherif around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Sherif in 3 sets.

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Update: Sherif served first. The first 3 games were holds.

Garcia served at 1-2 and faced a break point at 30-40. She saved the break point and held serve. In the next game, Sherif was broken to 30. I backed Sherif at 2.26.

In the next game, Garcia faced a break point. Sherif’s price dropped to 2.02 and I removed half the liability. Garcia recovered to hold.

In the next game, Sherif faced a break point but held serve. Garcia then held to 15. In the next game, Sherif was broken to give the set to Garcia.

Sherif’s 1st serve points won percentage was 50%. With a healthy 1st serve percentage, this was a problem for her. Second serve points won were above tour average at 63%.
Garcia had a low first serve percentage of 51% and she won 56% of second serve points. That 56% is above the tour average but when she is playing almost half her service points with a second serve, she is making life difficult for herself.

I felt that Sherif had a chance to recover in the second set.

Garcia served first in the second set. I already had a position on Sherif from the first set. I added to that by laying Garcia at 1.32.

Garcia was broken to 15. Garcia’s price moved to 1.51. I gave Sherif a chance to hold her serve. She was taken to deuce twice and faced a break point but she held. I removed my liability at 1.75.

In the next game, Garcia served at 0-2 and faced a break point. I hedged at 1.90. Garcia recovered to hold.

The next 2 games were holds. Sherif served at 3-2 and was broken to 0. I laid Garcia at 1.37.

In the next game, Garcia faced a break point at 30-40. The market didn’t react as much as I would have hoped but I hedged at 1.47. If Garcia recovered to hold we were potentially a couple of games away from the end of the match. Also, Sherif wasn’t serving particularly well.

Garcia did recover to hold. In the next game, Sherif had to save 4 break points but recovered to hold serve. In the next game, Sherif broke to 15 to lead 5-4. I placed a small back on Garcia at 1.87. I was not confident that Sherif would serve out the set.

Sherif was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.40.

Garcia was then broken again and Sherif had a chance to serve for the set again. I stayed out this time. If a player is broken serving for the set but then earns the chance to serve for it again, they usually do a better job. On this occasion, Sherif did have 2 set points but couldn’t take them. She then saved a break point but was eventually broken.

They went into a tie break. Garcia went a double mini break up at 3-0. She led 5-1 but Sherif recovered to get back on serve at 4-5. She lost both her serves to hand the match to Garcia.

Garcia won 6-3, 7-6.

 

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WTA Miami
Gauff 1.95 v Muchova
Due to start at 7 pm
Confidence rating 6.5/10

Gauff 5-0. Most recent Jan 2026, hard, 3 sets. All their matches were on hard. The others were in straight sets. 12 month hard win %’s are even.

Gauff reached the 4th round last season. 3 sets win over Cocciaretto in the 2nd round. 3 sets win over Parks in the 3rd round. 3 sets win over Cirstea in the 4th round. 3 sets win over Bencic in the q final.
Semi finals in Dubai 2026, Quarter finals at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Wuhan 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Quarter finals in Cincinnati 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

Muchova reached the 3rd round last year. Tight 3 sets win over Osorio in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Boulter in the 3rd round. Very easy win over Eala in the 4th round. 2 tight sets win over Mboko in the q final.
4th round in Indian Wells 2026, Title in Doha 2026, 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Semi finals in Brisbane 2026, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats favour Muchova on serve. Stats for their last 10 favour her on serve. Stats for the tournament favour Muchova on serve.
Very good chance of 3 sets.
Tough to pick a winner. Probably comes down to who fights most. Slight edge to Gauff.
Lay Muchova around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00.

Match prediction: Gauff in 3 sets.

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Update: Gauff served first and was broken to 15. I laid Muchova at 1.58.

In the next game, Gauff saved a break point and was taken to deuce 3 times but was eventually broken back. I removed liability by laying Gauff at 1.95, leaving a free bet on Gauff.

In the next game, Gauff saved 3 break points but recovered to hold. She broke Muchova again to leads 3-1. Gauff then held to 0 and broke Muchova yet again. she easily served out the set to 0.

I had been expecting a tight match but Muchova just had not shown up. I left the free bet to run into the second set.

Muchova served first in set 2 and was broken. In the next game, Gauff faced 2 break points but held. Muchova was then broken for a 5th time. I hedged at 1.05.

Gauff held to 30 to take a 4-0 lead. In the next game, Muchova saved a break point before holding for the first time in the match. Gauff saved 2 break points in the next game but held. Muchova served at 1-5 and was broken.

Gauff won 6-1, 6-1.