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WTA Limoges Challenger Final
Kalinina v Jacquemot
Confidence rating

Match prediction: Kalinina in 3 sets.

Actual start price for Kalinina was 1.75

SET 1
Kalinina served first. There were 4 deuces but she held. Jacquemot then held to 30 after going 15-30 behind.

In the next game, Kalinina was broken. Her price went out to 2.74. At break point, Jacquemot’s price was 1.76. My target price to lay was 1.65. I laid Jacquemot at 1.58 after the break.

Jacquemot didn’t have an easy time in the next game. There were 5 deuces and she faced a break point. I removed half my liability at 1.87 at the break point. Jacquemot held to lead 3-1. The next game was a hold to 15 for Kalinina.

Jacquemot served next. She was broken from 40-15 up. At break point, Jacquemot was prices at 1.90. As I had already removed some liability at 1.87, I waited to see if she would be broken. After the break, I removed most of the liability at 1.87 on Kalinina’s ladder (Jacquemot was at 2.14).

Kalinina then served at 3-3. It was another tough service game and she faced and saved 2 break points before holding. In the next game, Jacquemot was broken to 30. Kalinina successfully served out the set to 15.

Stats in the first set favoured Kalinina although she had needed to work hard in some of her service games. Jacquemot would have the crowd behind her and my pre match assessment suggested a tight match. Jacquemot would serve first in the 2nd set. She had been broken in her last 2 service games so I decided to let her have her service game before laying Kalinina. Kalinina was priced at 1.27 after the first set.

SET 2
After the first set, I had a large green on Kalinina and a small red on Jacquemot. I did not change that after the set as there was a chance that Jacquemot would struggle in the first game of set 2.

Jacquemot was broken to 15. Kalinina was now a set and a break ahead. An excellent time to go against the leading player. As a bonus, I had the green from the first set so a lay of Kalinina would be risk free. I laid her at 1.13. If Jacquemot had been a little better in the first set, I would have used more of my first set green for the lay. I left a decent profit on Kalinina just in case she ran away with the second set.

Kalinina held to 15 in the next game. Jacquemot faced a break point in the 3rd game but managed to hold. Her first hold in 4 service games. Kalinina was then broken. She saved one break point but not the second one. The score was now 2-2. Kalinina was now at 1.26.

The next 4 games were holds with no break points. The score was 4-4. Kalinina was now at 1.24.

After a lay of the first set winner, if the score gets to 4-4, I will often exit. That’s usually if I have laid and there have been no breaks. In this case, there had been 2 breaks. I had laid, risk free, at a set and a break so I had added to my profit if I hedged at 4-4. Jacquemot had improved her stats from the first set. Kalinina’s first serve percentage had dropped. I decided to keep my position. I had thought there was a good chance of 3 sets in the pre match assessment.

Jacquemot had an easy hold to 15 to lead 5-4. In the next game, Kalinina went 0-40 behind. She saved the first break point but Jacquemot took the second one to win the set. I hedged evenly at 1.91 on Kalinina’s ladder.

SET 3
The 3rd set was very tight. In the first 7 games, neither player was even taken to deuce.

Kalinina served at 3-4. She went 30-40 behind but saved the break point. After 3 deuces, she faced another break point and was broken. Jacquemot would serve for the title. She choked when serving for the match in the semi final although was successful on her second attempt. I have favoured Kalinina pre match and I had some profit to keep a lay risk free. I had to lay Jacquemot.

I laid Jacquemot at 1.12. She was broken to 15. Kalinina held to 15 to get to 5-5. Jacquemot was now at 2.10. I moved a little green over to Jacquemot by laying Kalinina at 1.90. This left me a nice green on Jacquemot and a VERY nice green on Kalinina.

Jacquemot was broken to 30 in the next game! Obviously, I was a little frustrated that I had moved some green to Jacquemot just before that game but I still had a very good position. Kalinina easily served out the set and the match.

Kalinina won 6-3, 4-6, 7-5.