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WTA Australian Open
Li 1.70 v Linette
Due to start at 5:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Aug 2023, hard, Li in 3. Linette won on grass in 2019, 2 sets. Hard win %’s are a little better for Li.

Li lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Osorio in the 1st round as favourite.
Title in Guangzhou 2025, 4th Round at the US Open 2025, Final in Cleveland 2025, Quarter finals in Prague 2025.

Linette lost in the 1st round last year. 3 sets win over Navarro as huge underdog in the 1st round.
Quarter finals in Auckland 2026, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Miami 2025, 3rd Round in Doha 2025, Quarter finals in Abu Dhabi 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Li.
Linette reached the semi finals in 2023 and had a surprise win in the 1st round. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Li around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.75.

Match prediction: Li in 3 sets.

Update: Li started at 1.73. She served first. She faced a break point. Her price reached 2.12. Not quite the bottom of my target range but I placed a small back on Li at 2.12. She recovered to hold.

In the next game, Linette faced a break point. I removed liability at 1.58, leaving the green on Li. Linette recovered to hold serve. In the next game, Li went 0-40 behind. I already had a small “free bet” on Li. She was not serving well. I wanted to see some improvement before putting more into the market. She saved the first break point but was broken on the 2nd break point.

The next 3 games were holds to 30. Linette led 4-2. Li served next and faced a bp but recovered to hold. She had faced at least 1 break point in 3 of her 4 service games. Linette wasn’t serving particularly well though had only faced 1 break point. I had no risk so I decided to take the trade into set 2. Li was broken for a second time to give Linette the set.

I had favoured Li before the match but she was not performing as expected. Her problem was her second serves in that set. She won 4 of 14 on that second serve.

Linette served first in the 2nd set. She was priced 1.32. She faced 2 break points in that game (not consecutively). Her price reached 1.44 after the second break point. Linette recovered to hold.

In the next game, Li was broken. Linette’s price dropped to 1.13 . Maybe Linette would ease up now she was a set and a break ahead? She didn’t. She had an easy hold and then broke Li yet again! Linette was now at 1.03. She was 4-0 up.

Double break lead and priced at 1.03? I couldn’t help myself. I laid Linette for 500. The risk was only £15.

As expected, Linette lost some intensity. She felt the job was already done. She was broken in the next game. I could exit at 1.07. I could back for 500 to leave 20 on Linette. I stayed for the hold, which really was pretty stupid given that she had not held in the set. Li was taken to deuce but held.

Linette was now at 1.10. If I backed for 500, I’d have 35 on Linette. I took it. At least I wasn’t going to walk away with nothing for sitting here for 90 minutes.

Linette held serve to 15 to lead 5-2. Li faced 2 match points n the next game but held in a very long game. Linette then served out the match after being taken to deuce. The price never got near 1.10 after I exited.

Linette won 6-2, 6-3.