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ATP Paris Masters
Davidovich Fokina 1.55 v Cazaux
Due to start at 1 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Fokina 1-0 (July 2024, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s are better for Fokina.

Fokina lost in the qual rounds last year. 3 sets win over Royer in the 1st round. Final in Basel 2025. Quarter final in Brussels. 2nd round in Dallas.

Cazaux reached the 3rd round last season. 2 tie breaks win over Darderi in the 1st round. 2nd round in Montpellier.

12 month indoor stats favour Cazaux on serve. 2025 stats are closer but he still leads on serve. Return stats are better for Fokina. Recent performances are better for Fokina. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Fokina around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets.

Update: Tight first set. No break points until the 8th game. Cazaux served at 3-4 and went 15-40 behind. If it had potentially been close to the end of the set, I may have laid Fokina but as I favoured him to win, I stayed out. Cazaux recovered.

In the next game, Fokina was 3-40 and 40-A down. I placed a small back on him at 30-40. He recovered to hold and I removed almost all my liability. No more break points in the set and they went to a tie break. Cazaux took a 3-1 lead but Fokina took the tie break 7-5. I kept my small position on Fokina.

I thought pre match that the match could go to 3 sets. I was concerned that Cazaux may be affected by coming so close to taking the set. He was serving first in the second set so I waited. Cazaux was broken in the first game. I removed the last bit if liability and left it to run.

There were no more breaks in the match although Fokina faced 2 break points when serving for the match.

Davidovich Fokina won 7-6, 6-4.

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ATP Paris Masters
Shapovalov v Fonseca 1.69
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Fonseca 1-0 (Oct 2025, indoors, Shapovalov retired). Indoor win %’s are better for Shapovalov.

Shapovalov reached the Quarter finals in Basel. Semi finals in Stockholm 2025, Title in Dallas 2025, Title in Belgrade 2024, Quarter finals in Basel 2024.

Fonseca won the title in Basel last week. He won the Next Gen Finals in Dec.

Shapovalov retired last week.
Back Fonseca around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Fonseca in 3 sets.

Update: There were no break point in the first 11 games. Fonseca served at 5-6 and faced 1 break point which was taken. There no value entries in the first set.

In set 2, I laid Shapovalov. In the first game of the set, he was broken to 15. Fonseca then had an easy hold to lead 2-0. I removed some liability. There were no more break points in the next 4 games. Shapovalov served at 2-4 and was broken again. The Fonseca price would not move a lot further in the set as he was a double break up so I hedged evenly.

Fonseca was broken when serving for the set at 5-2 but on his second attempt at 5-4, he held to 0. I did not enter a trade in the third set.

Fonseca won 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.