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ATP Cincinnati, Final

Rublev v Zverev

Due to start at 9:30 pm

Zverev 4-1. Most recent June 2020, clay, Rublev in 2 sets. That was an exhibition during the Covid lockdown.

Both have excellent long term hard court win %. Rublev won 40 of his last 50. Zverev won 37 of 50. Slightly better results for Zverev in the last 12 months and in 2021.

Zverev was up by a set and a break in the semi final but was broken twice and lost the 2nd set. In the 3rd set he went a double break down at 1-4. He got one of the breaks back and then broke Tsitsipas again when the Greek player served for the match. The set went to a tie break which Zverev won fairly comfortably.

Rublev lost the 1st set to Medvedev who had several MTO’s for his right arm. Rublev was broken 3 times in that first set. In set 2, a single late break was enough to give the set to Rublev. Despite Medvedev being injured he was able to keep the deciding set on serve until 3-3. He was then broken twice.

I am going with Zverev to win. I’m not sure that Rublev would have beaten Medvedev if Medvedev was 100%. Zverev started the semi final strongly. After the 1st set he was getting very angry about Tsitsipas taking an extended break between the sets. His anger won him the 1st game of set 2 but he fell apart a bit until half way through set 3. He fought back well.

Back Zverev around 2.00 and remove liability at around 1.55. Lay the set 1 winner.

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