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ATP Auckland
Norrie 1.45 v Gaston
Due to start at 5 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Norrie 2-0. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, 2 sets. He won on hard in March 2022, 2 sets.12 month hard win %’s are a little better for Gaston.

Norrie lost in the 1st round last year. He reached the 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, 3rd Round in Washington 2025, 3rd Round in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals in Delray Beach 2025, Quarter finals in Hong Kong 2025.

Gaston has come through the qual rounds. 4 ATP 2nd rounds in 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 on hard are stronger for Norrie on serve.
Back Norrie around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Match prediction: Norrie in 2 sets

Update: Only 1 game in the first 8 had break points. That was when Gaston served at 2-2. He faced 2 break points and was broken. When Gaston served at 3-5, he was broken again to lose the set.

As I expected Norrie to win in straight sets, I did not lay him in the 2nd set. There was just 1 late break in the set that gave Norrie the set and the match.

No trades placed.

Norrie won 6-3, 6-4.

 

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ATP Brisbane
Medvedev 1.37 v Nakashima
Due to start at 8:30 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Medvedev 2-0. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, 3 sets. He won on hard in March 2023, 2 sets. 12 month hard win %’s are quite even.

Medvedev had a 2 sets win over Fucsovics in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Tiafoe in the 2nd round. He needed 3 sets against Majchrzak in the Quarter final. 2 sets win over Michelsen in the Semi final.
He reached the Semi finals in Shanghai 2025, Semi finals in Beijing 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025, Semi finals in Indian Wells 2025, Quarter finals in Dubai 2025, Quarter finals in Doha 2025.

Nakashima had a straight sets win over Fokina as underdog in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Halys in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Collignon in the Quarter final. 2 tight sets win over Kovacevic in the Semi final.
He reached the Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Semi finals in Chengdu 2025, Quarter finals in Washington 2025, 4th Round in Miami 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Acapulco 2025, Quarter finals in Delray Beach 2025.

12 month stats are a little better for Nakashima on serve. Return stats are much better for Medvedev. Stats for their last 10 on hard favour Medvedev overall.
Back Medvedev around 1.85 to 1.95 and remove liability at 1.45.

Match prediction: Medvedev in 2 sets

Update: Nakashima was broken in the first game. That was followed by a hold to 15 for Medvedev. Nakashima was then broken again and trailed 0-4. There were no more breaks in the set.

In the second set, Medvedev got the first break to lead 3-2. I did not expect Nakashima to come back so I stopped following the match. In fact, Medvedev was broken when serving for the match at 5-4. He wasted 2 match points in that game. The set went to a tie break which medved easily won 7-1.

Medvedev won 6-2, 7-6 (1).