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ATP Beijing
Cazaux v Mensik 1.45
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Cazaux 1-0 (Jan 2023, hard, 2 sets). Hard win %’s favour Mensik.

Cazaux has come though the qual rounds. 3 sets win over Shang in the 1st round. 2nd round of the Aus Open.

Mensik lost in the 1st round as qualifier last season. 2 close sets win over Kecmanovic in the 1st round. Title in Miami 2025, 3rd Round at the Australian Open 2025, Quarter finals in Auckland 2025, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2025, Quarter finals in Shanghai 2024.

12 month and 2025 stats are stronger for Mensik.
Back Mensik around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Mensik took the only break of the first set to lead 5-3. When serving for the set, he had to save a break point but did take the set.

As the set had been close, I laid Mensik at the start of set 2. Cazaux broke first to lead 3-1 and I removed most of my liability, leaving the green on Mensik. Cazaux went to take the set with another break of serve.

In the third set, Mensik broke in the first game and I hedged evenly. Cazaux did get the break back to get to 2-2 but another break for Mensik was enough to give him the win.

Mensik won 6-3, 2-6, 6-4.

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WTA Beijing
Muchova 1.83 v Cirstea
Due to start at 9 am
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Muchova 6-1. Most recent Aug 2025, hard, Muchova in 3. All their matches were on hard. She won their last 4. Hard win %’s are fairly even.

Muchova reached the final last year. Quarter finals at the US Open 2025, 4th Round in Montreal 2025, 4th Round in Indian Wells 2025, Semi finals in Dubai 2025, Semi finals in Ningbo 2024.

Cirstea had an easy win in the 1st round. She won the Title in Cleveland 2025, 4th Round in Cincinnati 2025, Quarter finals in Austin 2025, Quarter finals in Dubai 2025.

12 month and 2025 stats favour Muchova on serve. Stats are closer in their last 10 on hard.
Back Muchova around 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Update: Muchova took a 4-0 lead in the first set. The only break point she faced in the set was when serving for the set at 5-2.

I did not lay her at the start of the second set. She broke in the first game. I place a small lay on her as a leading player often relaxes when a set and a break ahead. However, she held her next 2 service games to 15 so I exited for a small red.

Muchova went on to break again to take the set. She did not face a break point in the second set.

Muchova won 6-2, 6-3.

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