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ATP Paris Masters
Davidovich Fokina v Zverev 1.49
Due to start at 7:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Zverev 5-1. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, Zverev in 3rd set tie break. 3 sets win on hard in Sep 2023. Fokina won on hard in Aug 2023, 2 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Fokina leads in 2025.

Fokina lost in the qual rounds last year. 3 sets win over Royer in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Cazaux in the 2nd round.
Final in Basel 2025. Quarter final in Brussels. 2nd round in Dallas.

Zverev won the title last season. He needed 3 sets against Carabelli in the 2nd round.
Final in Vienna 2025, Semi finals at the ATP Finals.

12 month ATP stats are stronger for Zverev. 2025 stats are a little closer but still favour him.
Back Zverev around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Zverev in 3 sets.

Update: the first 2 games were easy holds. In the 3rd game, Fokina was broken. I laid Zverev at 1.19. In the next game, Zverev went break point down and I removed some of my liability at 1.31. Zverev saved 3 break points in the game and held.

The next game was an easy hold for Fokina. I gave him 1 more chance to break back. Zverev held to love. I exited at 1.17 for a tiny profit.

Fokina served at 2-4 and went 0-40 behind. He got back to deuce but Zverev had another break point which he converted. He served for the set at 5-2. He was taken to deuce but held.

Fokina served first in set 2. I let him have his service game before laying Zverev. Fokina was broken. I laid Zverev at 1.05. He was broken to 15 in the next game and I hedged at 1.18.

Zverev got a break to lead 4-3. The remaining 3 games were all easy holds. Small profit. We’d have needed 3 sets for anything decent unless I’d had more faith in Fokina to break back from being a set and a break behind and I had used bigger stakes for the lay.

Zverev won 6-2, 6-4.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
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Get Trading Tips for every main draw ATP and WTA match, 7 days a week https://blog.tradesharktennis.com/tennis-trading-tips/

ATP Paris Masters
Davidovich Fokina 1.55 v Cazaux
Due to start at 1 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Fokina 1-0 (July 2024, hard, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s are better for Fokina.

Fokina lost in the qual rounds last year. 3 sets win over Royer in the 1st round. Final in Basel 2025. Quarter final in Brussels. 2nd round in Dallas.

Cazaux reached the 3rd round last season. 2 tie breaks win over Darderi in the 1st round. 2nd round in Montpellier.

12 month indoor stats favour Cazaux on serve. 2025 stats are closer but he still leads on serve. Return stats are better for Fokina. Recent performances are better for Fokina. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Fokina around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Davidovich Fokina in 3 sets.

Update: Tight first set. No break points until the 8th game. Cazaux served at 3-4 and went 15-40 behind. If it had potentially been close to the end of the set, I may have laid Fokina but as I favoured him to win, I stayed out. Cazaux recovered.

In the next game, Fokina was 3-40 and 40-A down. I placed a small back on him at 30-40. He recovered to hold and I removed almost all my liability. No more break points in the set and they went to a tie break. Cazaux took a 3-1 lead but Fokina took the tie break 7-5. I kept my small position on Fokina.

I thought pre match that the match could go to 3 sets. I was concerned that Cazaux may be affected by coming so close to taking the set. He was serving first in the second set so I waited. Cazaux was broken in the first game. I removed the last bit if liability and left it to run.

There were no more breaks in the match although Fokina faced 2 break points when serving for the match.

Davidovich Fokina won 7-6, 6-4.

These tips are taken from the Tennis Trading Tips email. Get information, stats and tips on every main tour match 7 days a week. Every day, I research all the ATP and WTA matches and write trading notes for my own use. I refer to these notes during the trading session and will not trade a match until I have used the notes to remind me of my trading plan for that match.
I will email you my notes 7 days a week.

Click here to sign up to get the emails from TODAY>>>