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ATP Buenos Aires
Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1.59 v Martinez Portero
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Martinez 1-0 (Feb 2020, clay, 2 sets). Clay win 5’s favour Cerundolo.

Cerundolo reached the 2nd round as qualifier last season. easy win over Altmaier in the 1st round.
Final in Gstaad 2025, 3rd Round in Madrid 2025.

Martinez reached the Semi final last season. Easy win in the 1st round.
2nd rounds in Rome, Barcelona and Q final in Bucharest 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Cerundolo.
Back Cerundolo around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Cerundolo in 2 sets.

Update: Cerundolo served first. The first 2 games were holds to 15. In the next game, Cerundolo was broken. His price hit 2.02 and I backed him.

The next game was very similar for Martinez. He was 40-15 up but was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.60.

The next 3 games were holds. Martinez served at 3-4. He faced a break point. I hedged evenly at 1.30. Martinez recovered to hold.

After 2 more holds, Cerundolo served at 5-5. He saved a break point but faced another which Martinez converted. I placed a small back on Cerundolo at 2.24. In the next game, Martinez was serving for the set. He went 0-40 behind and I hedged at 1.62. He was broken and the set went to a tie break.
Cerundolo led 5-3 in the tie break but lost the next 4 points to lose the set.

Cerundolo had not served well in that set. His first serve % was good at 74% but he won just 56% of points on the first serve. Martinez also found 74% of first serves but had won 69% of points on it. His second serve was poor at 25% of points won (3 from 12) but as his first serve % was good, he got away with a below par second serve.
I had some profit from the first set and I used some of it to lay Martinez at 1.63 at the start of the second set. I needed to see a real improvement in Cerundolo’s game but at least my position was risk free.

The first 5 games were holds of serve with no break points. Cerundolo served at 2-3. He went 15-40 behind. Martinez’ price went down to 1.20. If i had exited at that point, my profit was virtually nothing so I stayed with it. Cerundolo was broken. Martinez held to 30 and led 5-2.

In the next game, Cerundolo had an easy hold. In the next game, Martinez went 0-40 behind when serving for the set/match. After he was broken, his price was at 1.39. I could have hedged and saved most of the profit from the first set but as I had favoured Cerundolo pre match and felt he had some momentum, I stayed in.
Cerundolo served at 4-5 and was broken! Ah well. Tiny profit. At least it wasn’t a red.

Martinez won 7-6, 6-4.

 

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WTA Doha
Andreeva 1.52 v Mboko
Due to start at 12:00
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are even.

Andreeva reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Adelaide 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Dubai 2025.

Mboko had a 2 sets win over Bouzkova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zvonareva in the 2nd round.
She reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Final in Adelaide 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Andreeva.
Back Andreeva around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Andreeva in 2 sets.

Update: Mboko served first and held to 0. In the next game, Andreeva went 15-40 behind. Her price hit 2.00 and I backed her. She saved one of the break points but was broken.

Mboko then had another hold to 0 to lead 3-0. She was now at 1.66. I added to my position with a lay of Mboko at 1.66.

In the next game, Andreeva held to 15. Mboko served at 3-1. she went 15-40 behind. I removed some of my liability by laying Andreeva at 1.95. Mboko saved one of the break points but was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.81.

Andreeva then held serve to 30 to get to 3-3. In the next game, Mboko faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged evenly at 1.48. Mboko faced 2 break points in that game but recovered to hold. She led 4-3.

In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 15. Mboko successfully served out the set in the next game.

Stats in the first set were pretty poor for Andreeva. 47% of points won on her first serve and 40% on her second serve. She was broken 3 times.
Mboko had a good first serve % of 73% and had won 82% of her first serve points. Her second serve was poor. She won 2 of 8 on her second serve.

Mboko was at 1.41 after the set. Andreeva served first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game before I laid Mboko. She faced 4 break points in that game but managed to hold. I laid Mboko at 1.49. As I had a decent profit from the first set, I could place a fairly hefty lay and only leave myself with a small liability.

In the next game, Mboko was broken to 0. I removed the liability at 1.88 on Mboko’s ladder. I did not hedge evenly but had a solid green on Mboko and a larger green on Andreeva.

In the next game, Andreeva was broken yet again! I laid Mboko at 1.55. No liability on the position. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. I hedged at 2.00. This time, I hedged evenly. Mboko’s level had dropped but Andreeva hadn’t improved by much, if at all.

In the next game, Andreeva served at 3-1 but was broken again to 30. Mboko then held to 0.

So, pattern time! There had been 4 consecutive breaks of serve. When that happens in WTA, if one of the players breaks the pattern to hold serve, the other player usually also holds. My theory on why this happens is that the player who just held after being broken in their last 2 service games is so relieved to get the hold that they relax a little and therefore their intensity also drops a small amount. They don’t go after their opponent’s next service game.

I laid Mboko at 1.41. Andreeva held to 15. Andreeva now led 4-3. Mboko was now at 1.62. I was green on Mboko and had a large green on Andreeva. I decided to give Andreeva the chance to take the set. Mboko was broken to 30 in the next game and I hedged evenly at 1.84 on Andreeva’s ladder. I was not about to trust her to serve out the set!

She did hold to take the set but was taken to deuce.

In the third set, the first 2 games were holds to 0. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. In WTA, the player who breaks first in the third set gets broken back 49% of the time. I laid Andreeva at 1.32. In the next game, She was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.78. The score was now 2-2.

The next 4 games were holds without break chances. Mboko served at 4-4 and was broken to 30. Andreeva would serve for the match. She was at 1.16. Her serve had improved from the first set but I had a healthy profit. It would be rude not to lay her! I laid at 1.16.

Andreeva had a match point at 40-30 but couldn’t take it. She saved a break point but was eventually broken. I hedged at 1.89.

The next 2 games were easy holds and they went into a tie break. Mboko took the tie break 7-5 to take the win.

Mboko won 6-3, 3-6, 7-6.