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ATP Paris Masters
Shapovalov v Fonseca 1.69
Due to start at 11:30 am
Confidence rating 7/10

Fonseca 1-0 (Oct 2025, indoors, Shapovalov retired). Indoor win %’s are better for Shapovalov.

Shapovalov reached the Quarter finals in Basel. Semi finals in Stockholm 2025, Title in Dallas 2025, Title in Belgrade 2024, Quarter finals in Basel 2024.

Fonseca won the title in Basel last week. He won the Next Gen Finals in Dec.

Shapovalov retired last week.
Back Fonseca around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability at 1.70.

Match prediction: Fonseca in 3 sets.

Update: There were no break point in the first 11 games. Fonseca served at 5-6 and faced 1 break point which was taken. There no value entries in the first set.

In set 2, I laid Shapovalov. In the first game of the set, he was broken to 15. Fonseca then had an easy hold to lead 2-0. I removed some liability. There were no more break points in the next 4 games. Shapovalov served at 2-4 and was broken again. The Fonseca price would not move a lot further in the set as he was a double break up so I hedged evenly.

Fonseca was broken when serving for the set at 5-2 but on his second attempt at 5-4, he held to 0. I did not enter a trade in the third set.

Fonseca won 5-7, 6-4, 6-3.

 

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ATP Paris Masters
Michelsen v Bergs 1.88
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Michelsen 2-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. He won on hard in Aug 2024, 3 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Bergs leads in 2025.

Michelsen reached the 2nd round last year. Semi finals in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.

Bergs reached the 2nd round as lucky loser last season. Semi finals in Marseille 2025, Quarter finals in Metz 2024.

12 month and 2025 indoor stats favour Bergs on serve.
Lay Michelsen around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.

Update: Bergs broke serve in the 3rd game to lead 2-1. As I expected 3 sets, I laid him. I kept liability small as I was going against my favoured player. Berg’s next 2 service game were easy enough holds and he led 4-2. I hedged for a small loss to wait for set 2. I needed to see if Michelsen could put some pressure on the Bergs serve for the rest of the first set. Bergs broke again in the next game to lead 5-2.

Bergs was broken when serving for the set but immediately broke Michelsen again to take the set.

In set 2, Bergs served first. He had been broken in his previous service game and was vulnerable to a slow start in this set after dominating the first set. I laid Bergs. Bergs was broken in the first game. That was followed by an easy hold for Michelsen. I removed half my liability.

Bergs was broken again in his next service game and I hedged evenly. Michelsen would break again to lead 5-0. He was broken when serving for the set. The next 2 games were holds and Michelsen took set 2.

I rarely get involved in ATP 3rd sets, especially on hard or indoor hard courts. I kept my profit and ran.

The third set was one sided and Bergs took it with a double break.

Bergs won 6-3, 2-6, 6-2.