Free Tennis Tips

Get Trading Tips for every main draw ATP and WTA match, 7 days a week https://blog.tradesharktennis.com/tennis-trading-tips/

ATP Paris Masters
Michelsen v Bergs 1.88
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Michelsen 2-0. Most recent Aug 2024, hard, 2 sets. He won on hard in Aug 2024, 3 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Bergs leads in 2025.

Michelsen reached the 2nd round last year. Semi finals in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.

Bergs reached the 2nd round as lucky loser last season. Semi finals in Marseille 2025, Quarter finals in Metz 2024.

12 month and 2025 indoor stats favour Bergs on serve.
Lay Michelsen around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.10. Chance of 3 sets.

Update: Bergs broke serve in the 3rd game to lead 2-1. As I expected 3 sets, I laid him. I kept liability small as I was going against my favoured player. Berg’s next 2 service game were easy enough holds and he led 4-2. I hedged for a small loss to wait for set 2. I needed to see if Michelsen could put some pressure on the Bergs serve for the rest of the first set. Bergs broke again in the next game to lead 5-2.

Bergs was broken when serving for the set but immediately broke Michelsen again to take the set.

In set 2, Bergs served first. He had been broken in his previous service game and was vulnerable to a slow start in this set after dominating the first set. I laid Bergs. Bergs was broken in the first game. That was followed by an easy hold for Michelsen. I removed half my liability.

Bergs was broken again in his next service game and I hedged evenly. Michelsen would break again to lead 5-0. He was broken when serving for the set. The next 2 games were holds and Michelsen took set 2.

I rarely get involved in ATP 3rd sets, especially on hard or indoor hard courts. I kept my profit and ran.

The third set was one sided and Bergs took it with a double break.

Bergs won 6-3, 2-6, 6-2.

 

Get Trading Tips for every main draw ATP and WTA match, 7 days a week https://blog.tradesharktennis.com/tennis-trading-tips/

WTA Challenger Florianopolis
Monnet v Grabher 1.54
Due to start at 5 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Grabher 4-0. Most recent Nov 2022, clay, 2 sets. 2 sets win on clay in June 2022. 3 sets win on clay in 2021. She won indoors in 2020, 2 sets. Clay win %’s are better for Grabher.

Monnet needed 3 sets as strong favourite in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Sierra as huge underdog in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as underdog in the Quarter final. 3 sets win over Kraus as underdog.
CH semi in Sep. She plays mostly ITF’s.

Grabher needed a 3rd set tie break as 1.15 favourite in the 1st round. Easy win in the 2nd round. 2 sets win as huge underdog in the Q final over Waltert.
CH semi last week. CH q final in Sep. CH semi in July. CH q final in June.

12 month WTA stats are stronger for Monnet. 12 month CH stats are stronger for Grabher on serve. 2025 CH stats also favour Grabher on serve. 2025 ITF stats are much stronger for Grabher.
Back Grabher around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Grabher made a terrible start. She was broken in the first game. I didn’t get my target price but placed a reduced stake back on her. Easy hold for Monnet followed. In the next game, Grabher was broken again and I exited. If she was going to have a total nightmare, I didn’t want to sit and watch the red get bigger. Grabher was also broken in her third service game!

Monnet was broken twice when serving for the set. Grabher was broken for a fourth time to lose the set.

In set 2, Monnet served first. I did not want to enter until I had seen Grabher’ s service game. She had only held once in the first set. Monnet held to 30 and then broke Grabher. She was now a set and a break ahead. This usually a really good time to enter. I laid Monnet.

Monnet was broken to 0. Grabher then held serve to 0! Grabher broke serve again in the next game and held to 15 to lead 4-2. I removed most of my liability.

Grabher served at 4-3 and was broken. I held my position. She immediately broke Monnet to lead 5-4 and successfully served out the set.
Monnet was serving first in the third set so I did not exit the trade. She was broken in the first game and I hedged.

Monnet fell apart in the third set.

Grabher won 3-6, 6-4, 6-0.