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ATP Vienna Semi Final
Musetti v Zverev 1.98
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Musetti 3-1. Most recent May 2025, clay, Musetti in 2. He won indoors in Oct (Vienna), 3 sets. Zverev’s win was by retirement in 2022. 12 month indoor win %’s favour Zverev. Musetti leads in 2025.

Musetti reached the Semi final last season. 2 sets win over Medjedovic in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Etcheverry in the 2nd round. 2 sets win over Moutet in the Quarter final.
Quarter final in Brussels.

Zverev reached the Quarter finals last season. He needed a 3rd set tie break against Fernley in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Arnaldi in the 2nd round. He had a walkover in the Quarter final.
Semi finals in Turin 2024, Title in Paris 2024.

12 month indoor stats are stronger for Zverev on serve. 2025 stats favour Musetti. (small number of matches). Good chance of 3 sets.
Lay Zverev around 1.60 and remove liability at 2.10.

Update: Zverev really stepped up today. There were no break points in the first 6 games. Musetti served at 3-3 and went 15-40 behind. I placed a lay on Zverev but kept the stake/liability small as he had not faced much pressure on his own serve. Musetti saved 2 of the break points but Zverev took the third chance. There were no more break points in the set.

At the start of the second set, I added to the lay of Zverev. Again, I did not go crazy with stake size. No break points in the first 8 games. I have a rule that if I have laid the set winner and the score in set 2 gets to 4-4, I exit. That rules saves me a lot more times than it doesn’t.

No break points in the next 2 games but then Zverev broke to 30 to lead 6-5. He successfully served out the set and the match.

Zverev won 6-4, 7-5.

 

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ATP Basel
Ruud 1.56 v Davidovich Fokina
Due to start at 6:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Ruud 3-2. Most recent May 2024, clay, Ruud in 5. He won on hard in March 2024, 2 sets. Fokina won on hard in Aug 2023, 3rd set tie break. Fokina won on clay in 2021, 5 sets. Ruud won indoors in 2019, 5 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s are even. Ruud leads in 2025.

Ruud lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Halys in the 1st round. Title in Stockholm 2025, Final in Dallas 2025. Semi final of the ATP Finals in Nov.

Fokina beat Sonego in 2 sets in the 1st round. 3 sets win over Brooksby in the 2nd round. He reached the Q final in Brussels (BYE in 1st round). 2nd round In Dallas.

12 month indoor stats favour Ruud on serve and Fokina on return. 2025 stats favour Ruud. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Ruud around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: The first set was tight. In the second half of the set, Ruud was showing signs of not being comfortable. perhaps a leg or foot issue. Despite that. he saved the 7 break points he faced and the set went into a tie break.
Fokina took the tie break 7-1 and Ruud immediately retired.

I did not enter any trades in this match.

Davidovich Fokina won 7-6 (retired).