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ATP Vienna
Medvedev 1.51 v Moutet
Due to start at 12:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Medvedev 2-1. Most recent Oct 2025, indoors, Medvedev in 3. |Moutet won on hard in July 2025, 3 sets. Medvedev won on grass in 2021, 2 sets. Indoor win %’s are a little better for Moutet.

Medvedev needed 3 sets against Borges in the 1st round. He won the Title in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Marseille 2025.

Moutet lost in the qual rounds last season. Easy win over Dzumhur in the 1st round. Final in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.

12 month indoor stats favour Medvedev overall. Chance of 3 sets. Their 2025 stats are closer.
Back Medvedev around 1.95 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Medvedev can be a tricky player to trade. You can never be sure how motivated he is and often makes a slow start before overwhelming his opponent. In this one, we got a little lucky.

Medvedev was broken in the first game. I placed a part stake back on him. Moutet then held to lead 2-0. In the third game, Medvedev faced another break point and I added to my back on him. He recovered to hold.

The next 2 games were both holds. Moutet served at 3-2 and faced a break point. I removed half my liability. Moutet recovered to hold. In Moutet’s next service game, he was broken after saving 2 break points. They were now 4-4. As they were near the end of the set, I hedged, leaving a slightly bigger profit on Medvedev.

The set went to a tie break that Moutet took, 7-3.

In set two, Moutet served first. I laid him. He faced a break point and I removed most of my liability. He faced 2 break points in that game but recovered to hold. The next 3 games were holds. Moutet served at 2-2 and was broken to 15. I hedged evenly. That was either wise or lucky as Medvedev wouldn’t hold serve again. Moutet was broken serving for the match at 5-3 but broke in the next game to take the match.

Moutet won 7-6, 6-4.

 

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ATP Vienna
Dzumhur v Moutet 1.59
Due to start at 1:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

H2H 1-1. Dzumhur won on clay in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Moutet won on clay in 2024, 2 sets. 12 month indoor win %’s favour Moutet.

Dzumhur has come through the qual rounds. 2nd round in Brussels.

Moutet lost in the qual rounds last season. Final in Almaty 2025, Semi finals in Metz 2024.

12 month ATP indoor stats favour Dzumhur on serve but Moutet played much stronger opponents.
Back Moutet around 2.00 to 2.20 and remove liability at 1.65.

Update: Moutet was too strong. He broke Dzumhur in the 1st game. I did try a small lay of Moutet after the break but his first 2 service games were holds to 0 so I exited with a tiny loss. Moutet broke again to take the set. He took the second set 6-0.

Moutet won 6-3, 6-0.