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ATP Basel
Giron v Shapovalov 1.73
Due to start at 3:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Giron 3-1. Most recent Apr 2025, clay, Giron in 2. Shapovalov won on hard in Feb 2025, 3 sets. Giron won on hard in Jan 2025, 2 sets. Indoor win %’s favour Shapovalov.

Giron reached the Semi finals in Antwerp 2024. 3 ATP 2nd rounds in the last year.

Shapovalov reached the Quarter final last season. Semi finals in Stockholm 2025, Title in Dallas 2025, Title in Belgrade 2024.

12 month indoor stats favour Shapovalov. recent performances are better for him.
Back Shapovalov around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liability around 1.70.

Update: No break points in the first 6 games. Shapovalov served at 3-3 and faced 3 break points. He recovered to hold. When he served at 5-5, he faced a single break point. I backed Shapovalov as there was a chance he would save a single break point. If he was broken, he would probably lose the set so I kept the stake small. If he did lose the set, I would have laid Giron.

Shapovalov was broken! I stayed with the small back on Shapovalov. In the next game, Giron was broken! I hedged evenly.

Giron took the tie break 7-3. I laid Giron.

Giron serve first in set 2 and was broken to 0. Easy hold for Shapovalov and I removed half my liability. He went to take the set 6-0. At 4-0, I hedged evenly and did not enter in set 3.

In set 3, Shapovalov broke first to lead 3-2 but was immediately broken straight back. The set went to a tie break and this time, Shapovalov won it 7-4.

Shapovalov won 6-7, 6-0, 7-6.

 

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ATP Vienna
Tabilo v Bublik 1.48
Due to start at 2 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

1st meeting. Long term indoor win %’s are better for Bublik.

Tabilo reached the 2nd round in Paris and Basel in 2024.

Bublik reached the 2nd round in Marseille, Q final in Montpellier, 2nd round in Paris.

12 month indoor stats favour Bublik overall. 2025 hard stats are stronger for Tabilo. Chance of 3 sets.
Back Bublik around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Update: There were no break points in the first 7 games. In the 8th game, Bublik faced a break point. I backed him. He saved the break point and held serve.
In the next game, Tabilo was broken. Bublik then held to 15 to take the set. I removed the liability to leave the profit on Bublik.

Bublik won 6-4, 6-4.