Daily match picks

Third round
Anisimova 3.35 v Osaka 1.41
Due to start at 8 am

1st meeting.

Both have strong results on hard. Osaka has the better win percentage.

Osaka is the defending champion. She won 40 of her last 50 matches on hard courts. She also reached the q finals in Miami and third rounds in Tokyo, Cincinnati and the US Open.

Anisimova dropped a set to Hartono in the 1st round but beat Bencic in straight sets. She won a title in Melbourne this month, beating Kasatkina in the semi final. She reached the third round in Indian Wells in Oct. She reached third rounds in Montreal and Miami. She made the semi finals in Melbourne this month but withdrew before her match with Kudermetova.

Osaka has only been broken once in each round but faced 10 bp’s against Brengle in the second round. Anisimova should be able to put her under pressure. Lay Osaka around 1.25 and remove liability at 1.50.

Back Osaka above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.45. Back Osaka if she loses set 1.

Update: Osaka broke in the first game of the match and that was the only break of the set. The lay at 1.25 could have been carried into set 2. Anisimova got the only break of set 2. IN the deciding set, Osaka faced 2 bp in the 3rd game. We could have exited the trade.

The set went to a tie break, although Osaka had 2 match points when Anisimova served at 4-5. Anisimova won the match tie break.

Anisimova won 4-6, 6-3, 7-6

 

Mertens 1.44 v Begu 3.2
Second round
Due to start at 01:30

Mertens 2-0. Most recent meeting was April 2017, clay, 2 sets. She won indoors in 2017, 3 sets.

Long term hard win percentages are even. Mertens has the lead in the last 12 months.

Mertens reached the 4th round at the Australian Open and Us Open last year. She reached the semis in Dubai and 4th round in Miami. She beat Zvonareva in straight sets in the last round. She served fairly well and was broken twice from 4 bp’s.

Begu reached the q finals in Melbourne 2 weeks ago. She lost in the 1st round last year and also the 1st round at the US Open. She beat Dodin in 3 sets in the last round. It was a tough match and she faced 15 bp’s. She was broken 7 times.

Chance of 3 sets. Back Mertens above 2.00 and remove liability at 1.50. Back her if she loses set 1.

Update: Mertens saved a bp in the first game. She got the only break of the set to lead 3-1. We didn’t get the entry price. The second set was also one sided and she broke Begu twice.

Mertens won 6-3, 6-2. No trade.