Daily match picks

This is a quarter final match and is due to start at midnight.

Kontaveit 1.69, Jabeur 2.38

Jabeur leads their previous matches 3-1. They last met in Indian Wells in October last year. Jabeur won on a hard court in straight sets. She also won on a hard court in Cincinnati in August, though that one went to 3 sets. She has won their last 3 matches.

Long term hard win percentages and 12 month win percentages are even. Jabeur has the higher ROI. Stats for their last 10 on hard are close but favour Jabeur.

Jabeur came through a tough 2 sets match with Kvitova in the last round. She was broken 3 times. Her first serve was strong but her second points won were average at 44%. She has easily beaten Sharma in the first round for the loss of just 4 games.

Kontaveit has had 2 fairly comfortable matches although she was broken at the start of her match with Ruse. She went a break behind twice in that first set but won 4 games in a row to take it.

This should be a good match, though in a way it’s a shame it comes just before the Australian Open. I still think they are both going to be motivated to go for the win.

Lay Kontaveit around 1.45 and remove some or all liability liab at 1.90. Lay the set 1 winner.

Update: We did get our 1.45 quite early in the match. Unfortunately, Betfair didn’t turn the market in play and any lay place before they turned the market in play was voided. However after the market WAS turned in play, Kontaveit broke serve to give us the entry price again. Jabeur immediately broke back and we got our exit price when she went 30-0 up in the next game.

Jabeur was broken again and Kontaveit served out the set after saving 2 bp’s. Jabeur called an MTO and retired. Bets stand as the first set was complete. Unfortunately I had left a free bet on Jabeur! If you hedged at 1.90, then well done!

Kontaveit won 6-4 (ret)

 

WTA Sydney, Second Round
Kasatkina v Mertens
Due to start at 1:30 am

Kasatkina 3-1. Most recent Aug 2021, hard, Kasatkina in 2. Mertens won on hard in 2017, 2 sets.

Long term hard win %’s favour Mertens. 12 month hard results are even.

Kasatkina reached the semis last week. She was poor in that semi and didn’t hold serve once. This week her serve was much better against Kenin.

Mertens didn’t have as good a season in 2021 as she did in 2020. I wasn’t bad though and she reached the 4th round at the Australian Open and 4th round at the US Open. She also reached the semis in San Jose in August.

Fair chance of 3 sets. Stats for their last 10 on hard are quite even.

Back Kasat around 2.20 to 2.30 and remove liab at 1.70. Lay set 1 winner.

WTA Sydney, Second Round
Badosa v Tomljanovic
Due to start at 8 am

1st meeting.

Long term hard win %’s favour Badosa. She had better results in the last 12 months. Badosa was disappointing last week but played a much better match to beat Ostapenko this week.

Tomljanovic lost to Kenin last week. This week she easily took the 1st set from Schmiedlova but went behind in set 2 before recovering her game and winning in 2 sets.

Back Badosa around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liab at 1.45. If Badosa is a little below her best this can go to 3 sets.