Daily match picks

WTA Rogers Cup, Second round

Pliskova v Vekic

Due to start at 5:30 pm

Pliskova 5-1. Most recent June 2021, grass, Pliskova in 2 sets. She won their last 5 matches. Long term hard win % favour Pliskova. She has 32 wins from her last 50. Vekic won 27 of 50. Win %’s on hard in the last year are even.

Pliskova has not lost her first match at the Rogers Cup since 2015. Pliskova reached the 3rd round at the Aus Open. Since then she has only managed 2 wins in a week on hard courts at the Olympics.

This is the first time in 4 visits that Vekic won a match in Montreal. She easily beat Van Uytvanck in the last round. Van Uytvanck had a nightmare on serve. Vekic reached the 4th round at the Aus Open. She also reached the 3rd round at the Olympics.

If Pliskova is not near her best today then this can be tight. Back Pliskova around 2.10 and remove liability around 1.55. In the last 12 months, after losing set 1 on hard courts, she has only won set 2 once and lost all those matches (9). Don’t back her if she loses the set!

Update: Pliskova was broken first. We got our entry price. A few games later she broke back for 3-3 and held her own serve. In the next game Vekic faced 3 break points and we easily got our exit price. Vekic went on to take the set.

Despite her terrible stats when losing the first set, Pliskova took the lead in set 2 but only after saving 3 break points in her first service game. She took the set 6-2. Pliskova took the 3rd set in a tie break after giving away a break lead.

Pliskova won 4-6, 6-2, 7-6.

 

WTA Rogers Cup, First round

Gauff v Sevastova

Due to start at 4 pm

Sevastova 3-0. Most recent June 2021, grass, 3 sets. She won on hard in 2021 and 2020, both in 3 sets.

Long term overall win % favour Gauff. Her long term hard win % is also stronger. She won 30 of her last 50. Sevastova won 20 of 50.

Sevastova reached the q finals in 2018 which was the last time the tournament was in Montreal. She has reached 2 q finals on hard this season.

Gauff reached the semis in Adelaide and q finals in Dubai in March. Is there something about Sevastova’s game that gives Gauff problems against her? Gauff is a fast learner but this won’t be easy for her.

Lay Gauff if she gets a very early break and remove liability when Sevastova breaks back. Back Gauff around 2.20 and remove liability around 1.55.

Update: Terrible start from Sevastova. She lost the set 6-1. In the 2nd set Sevastova took a 3-0 lead. if you’d held on to the lay you had a chance to take profit. Gauff recovered to take the match in 2 sets.

Gauff won 6-1, 6-4.

ATP Rogers Cup, First round

Nishioka v Tiafoe

Due to start around 5:30 pm

H2H 1-1. Most recent May 2019, clay, Tiafoe in a 3rd set tie break. Nishioka won on hard in 2016, 2 sets.

Long term hard win % are a little better for Nishioka. Tiafoe has better hard results in the last year.

Nishioka has won 2 of his last 10 on hard courts. He has come through the qual rounds this week. He never won a main draw match at the Rogers Cup. He had some decent results in 2020 and made the final in Delray Beach as well as the 3rd round at the Australian Open.

Tiafoe played well in the grass season. On hard courts, he reached the 4th round in Miami in March but has had some tough draws on hard courts since.

Back Tiafoe around 1.95 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.55.

Update: There were no break points until Nishioka served at 4-5 and he was broken. Tis took an early break in set 2 and that was the only break of the set.

Tiafoe won 6-4, 6-3.

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