Daily match picks

Quarter final

Elina Svitolina (2.68) v Petra Kvitova (1.58)

Due to start at 4 pm.

Kvitova leads their previous matches 7-4. The last time they met was in Miami in March. Svitolina won in 3 sets on a hard court. They have never met on clay.

Long term overall win percentages are strong for both women. They have also been pretty even in the last 12 months. They both have very strong records on clay.

Kvit was comfortable in the first round against Jennifer Brady. She had a tougher match with Maria Sakkari in the last round. She faced 16 break points though was only broken 3 times in 3 sets. Her first serve was poor. She got it into the court 73% of the time but won 61% of points on it which is a little low for her. She reached the semi finals at the French open in September last year. She won this title in 2019.

Svitolina has played just 1 match this week. She struggled more than expected against Angelique Kerber though only faced 3 break points and was broken twice. Svitolina should be competitive today. She reached the quarter finals of the French Open and won the title in Strasbourg in September.

Kvitova is priced too low at 1.50. Svitolina has the higher ROI on clay. Lay Kvitova around 1.35 and remove or reduce the liability at 1.70. Lay the winner of the first set. The value is on Svitolina. It should be a great match.

Update: Kvitova was broken in her first service game. She immediately broke back and broke again for a 5-4 lead. She could not serve out the set and they ended up in a tie break that Kvitova won. In the second set Kvitova took a 5-2 lead but Svitolina took the next 5 games to level the match.
The deciding set was very one sided in favour of Svitolina.
Svitolina won 6-7, 7-5, 6-2.

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 

First Round

Fiona Ferro (1.75) v Petra Martic (2.30)

Due to start at 4:30 pm

Martic won their only previous meeting. That was in September 2019 in Zhengzhou. She won on a hard court in 3 sets.

Overall win percentages are better for Ferro. Both players have very strong clay records. Ferro has won 41 of her last 50 matches on this surface. Martic has won 36 of 50.

Ferro reached the fourth round of the French Open in September last year and won the title in Palermo in August. She withdrew from Dubai in march due to fatigue. She had reached the third round at the Australian Open in February and reached the semi finals indoors in Lyon in March.

Martic made the third round of the French Open and the semi finals in Palermo after the tour resumed in August. She also reached the fourth round of the US Open in August. This season she bombed out of the Australian Open in the first round as a 1.46 favourite to Olga Danilovic.

Neither woman has played on clay this season. We have a very good chance of it going to 3 sets. Back Ferro around 2.20 to 2.30. Lay the winner of the first set.

Update: Ferro was broken first in the 5th game. She immediately broke back. She won a late break of serve to take the set. In set 2 she took a 4-0 lead. She was broken in the 5th game but broke again to take the match.
Ferro won 7-5, 6-2.

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.