Daily match picks

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WTA Doha
Andreeva 1.52 v Mboko
Due to start at 12:00
Confidence rating 7.5/10

1st meeting. Hard win %’s are even.

Andreeva reached the 2nd round last year. 2 sets win over Linette in the 2nd round.
4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Title in Adelaide 2026, Quarter finals in Brisbane 2026, 4th Round in Beijing 2025, 3rd Round at the US Open 2025, Title in Indian Wells 2025, Title in Dubai 2025.

Mboko had a 2 sets win over Bouzkova in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Zvonareva in the 2nd round.
She reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Final in Adelaide 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Andreeva.
Back Andreeva around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Andreeva in 2 sets.

Update: Mboko served first and held to 0. In the next game, Andreeva went 15-40 behind. Her price hit 2.00 and I backed her. She saved one of the break points but was broken.

Mboko then had another hold to 0 to lead 3-0. She was now at 1.66. I added to my position with a lay of Mboko at 1.66.

In the next game, Andreeva held to 15. Mboko served at 3-1. she went 15-40 behind. I removed some of my liability by laying Andreeva at 1.95. Mboko saved one of the break points but was broken. I removed most of my liability at 1.81.

Andreeva then held serve to 30 to get to 3-3. In the next game, Mboko faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged evenly at 1.48. Mboko faced 2 break points in that game but recovered to hold. She led 4-3.

In the next game, Andreeva was broken to 15. Mboko successfully served out the set in the next game.

Stats in the first set were pretty poor for Andreeva. 47% of points won on her first serve and 40% on her second serve. She was broken 3 times.
Mboko had a good first serve % of 73% and had won 82% of her first serve points. Her second serve was poor. She won 2 of 8 on her second serve.

Mboko was at 1.41 after the set. Andreeva served first in the second set. I waited for her to have her service game before I laid Mboko. She faced 4 break points in that game but managed to hold. I laid Mboko at 1.49. As I had a decent profit from the first set, I could place a fairly hefty lay and only leave myself with a small liability.

In the next game, Mboko was broken to 0. I removed the liability at 1.88 on Mboko’s ladder. I did not hedge evenly but had a solid green on Mboko and a larger green on Andreeva.

In the next game, Andreeva was broken yet again! I laid Mboko at 1.55. No liability on the position. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. I hedged at 2.00. This time, I hedged evenly. Mboko’s level had dropped but Andreeva hadn’t improved by much, if at all.

In the next game, Andreeva served at 3-1 but was broken again to 30. Mboko then held to 0.

So, pattern time! There had been 4 consecutive breaks of serve. When that happens in WTA, if one of the players breaks the pattern to hold serve, the other player usually also holds. My theory on why this happens is that the player who just held after being broken in their last 2 service games is so relieved to get the hold that they relax a little and therefore their intensity also drops a small amount. They don’t go after their opponent’s next service game.

I laid Mboko at 1.41. Andreeva held to 15. Andreeva now led 4-3. Mboko was now at 1.62. I was green on Mboko and had a large green on Andreeva. I decided to give Andreeva the chance to take the set. Mboko was broken to 30 in the next game and I hedged evenly at 1.84 on Andreeva’s ladder. I was not about to trust her to serve out the set!

She did hold to take the set but was taken to deuce.

In the third set, the first 2 games were holds to 0. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. In WTA, the player who breaks first in the third set gets broken back 49% of the time. I laid Andreeva at 1.32. In the next game, She was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.78. The score was now 2-2.

The next 4 games were holds without break chances. Mboko served at 4-4 and was broken to 30. Andreeva would serve for the match. She was at 1.16. Her serve had improved from the first set but I had a healthy profit. It would be rude not to lay her! I laid at 1.16.

Andreeva had a match point at 40-30 but couldn’t take it. She saved a break point but was eventually broken. I hedged at 1.89.

The next 2 games were easy holds and they went into a tie break. Mboko took the tie break 7-5 to take the win.

Mboko won 6-3, 3-6, 7-6.

 

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WTA Doha
Parks v Zheng 1.43
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

H2H 1-1. Most recent Apr 2023, clay, Zheng in 2. Parks won on grass in 2022, 2 sets. Hard win %’s favour Zheng.

Parks reached the 2nd round as qualifier last season. This time, she again came through the qual rounds. 3rd set tie break win over Shnaider in the 1st round.
Quarter finals in Jiujiang 2025, Semi finals in Monterrey 2025.

Zheng lost in the 2nd round last year. 3 sets win over Kenin in the 1st round.
Quarter finals in Miami 2025, Quarter finals in Indian Wells 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 are stronger for Zheng.
Back Zheng around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Match prediction: Zheng in 2 sets.

Update: By match time, Zheng’s price had dropped to 1.36. Parks served first. She was taken to deuce but held. The next 3 games were all easy holds. Parks served at 2-2. She faced 2 break points that she saved. She faced another and this time, she was broken.

Zheng’s price dropped to 1.22. I was expecting Parks to be competitive so I laid Zheng. Her next service game was a long one. She faced a break point at 30-40. She saved it and then had a game point. She faced another break point and saved that one too. After 3 more deuces, she faced a third break point which Parks took. Zheng’s price hit 1.51. I backed Zheng with the same stake that I had used to lay her. That kept the profit on Zheng and gave me zero on Parks.

Parks had an easy hold to lead 4-3. In her next service game, Zheng faced 2 break points but recovered to hold. That was followed by another easy hold for Parks.

Zheng served at 4-5. She faced a break point/set point. Zheng’s price hit 2.22. I already had a free bet on her. I placed a small top up back at 2.22. Zheng saved the break point and went on to hold after another 2 deuces. I removed my small liability at 1.70 to leave a slight bigger free bet on Zheng.

The next 2 games were holds and they went to a tie break. Zheng took the tie break 7-4.

Both players had reasonable stats in that set. Parks’ first serve % was good at 68%. She won 82% of points on first serve. Her second serve was well below tour average at 23% of points won. Zheng had a slightly lower first serve % at 59%. First serve points won were lower than her opponent’s at 63%. She was above tour average for second serve points won at 55%.

I saw no reason why Parks should not be competitive in the next set if she could handle the disappointment of losing the first set.

As I had the free bet on Zheng, I could lay her at 1.22 and keep it risk free. Zheng served first and held to 0. Parks held serve after saving a break point. In her next service game, Zheng was broken to 0. My position was risk free so I wanted to give Parks the chance to hold serve. She held easily to 15. Zheng’s price moved to 1.51.

In the next game, Zheng faced a break point at 30-40. I hedged evenly at 1.64. Zheng saved the break point and would have to saved another 2 before holding. Easy hold for Parks in the next game and she led 4-2. The next 2 games were holds. Zheng served at 3-5 and was broken after saving 3 break points. That gave Parks the set.

Not surprisingly, Parks had the stronger stats in that second set. Her first serve % and first serve points won %’s were a little lower than in the first set but she had significantly improved her second serve, winning an above tour average 56% of points on it. Zheng’s first serve % and first serve points won %’s remained the same as in set 1. Her second serve points won were lower than in the first set at 46% which is a little below the tour average.

Parks served first in the third set. I was happy with the profit so wasn’t sure if I was going to enter again. Parks was broken in the first game. Zheng’s price dropped to 1.38. I would have wanted a lower price to go against her. I waited. The next 3 games were comfortable holds.

Parks served at 1-3. She went 40-15 ahead but was broken. I didn’t enter again. There were no more breaks and Zheng took the set 6-2.

Zheng won 7-6, 3-6, 6-2.