Daily match picks

First round

Amanda Anisimova (2.2) v Veronika Kudermetova (1.78)

Due to start around 4 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Overall long term win percentages favour Kudermetova. She has better results in 2021 and a higher ROI. Long term clay results are strong for both players. Anisimova has a small edge. Clay results favour Kudermetova in the last 12 months and also in 2021. She has won 13 of 16 on this surface this season.

Anisimova reached the quarter finals in Parma 2 weeks ago. She beat jasmine Paolini and Anna Karolina Schmiedlova in straight sets before losing to Cori Gauff in 2 sets. She took Elina Svitolina to 3 sets in Rome the week before that. Last season she reached the third round at the French Open. She often starts matches well but can’t always maintain her early level.

Kudermetova lost in the second round last year to Petra Martic in 3 sets. She is having an excellent season on clay so far. She won the title in Charleston, reached the semis in Istanbul and the third round in Madrid in April. This month she reached the third round in Rome. her last 3 losses on clay were to Ashleigh Barty, Petra Kvitova and Elise Mertens.

Back Kudermetova around 2.30 or if she loses the first set. We have a fair chance of seeing 3 sets.

I have had a handful of questions asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 

Quarter Final

Cameron Norrie (1.48) v Arthur Rinderknech (3.00)

Due to start at 2 pm

This will be the first time they have met.

Overall win percentages are fairly even. They have both won 31 of their last 50 matches. In the last 12 months Norrie has won 41 of 64 matches (64%) and Rinderknech won 35 of 57 (61%). Norrie’s ROI is much higher. Win percentages on clay are much better for Norrie and especially so in the last 12 months. he has won 13 of 19 (68%) compared to 14 of 24 (58%) for Rinderknech.

Rinderknech lost in the qualifying rounds to out of form Joao Sousa. In the main draw he beat Mikaul Ymer in a rain delayed 3 sets. He also beat Jannik Sinner in 3 sets. Sinner had a really poor match facing 13 break points and being broken 6 times.

Norrie beat Dominic Thiem in straight sets in the last round. Thiem is struggling with fatigue and is well below his best form. Norrie was impressive though in that match and didn’t face a single break point. He also beat Corentin Moutet in the previous round in straight sets.

Back Norrie above 1.85

Update: A single break in the 4th game of the match was enough to give Norrie the set. In the 2nd set a late break gave Rinderknech the chance to serve for the set. He held serve to 0. The 3rd set started with a hold for Norrie but the match was suspended due to rain. the match did not resume until the following day. Once again it was a single break of serve in the 4th game gave Norrie the lead and he held on to take his place in the semi final.
Norrie won 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.