Daily match picks

First Round

Pironkova (1.61) v Kostyuk (2.6)

Due to start at 7:30 pm

This will be their first meeting.

Long term overall win percentages are much better for Kostyuk. Both players have won over 70% of their matches in the last year. Pironkova has a small lead. Pironkova also has better hard court results in the last year.

Pironkova has come through the qualifying rounds. She didn’t lose a set but wasn’t impressive in her first match. She beat Catherine McNally in 2 tie breaks but was broken 4 times and had to work hard for many of her service holds. She missed the 2018 and 2019 seasons and really surprised everyone when she hit the ground sprinting when the tour resumed in August 2020. She started with a quarter final at the US Open where she gave Serena Williams a real scare after beating Garbine Muguruza in straight sets in the second round. She also reached the third round at the French Open and got through the qualifying rounds for the Australian Open. She had a disappointing first round loss to Su-Wei Hsieh.

Most of Kostyuk’s best results were in ITF tournaments. She did reach the third round at the US Open in August. She also reached the semi finals in Abu Dhabi in January. if Pironkova is not quite at her best she could give her a few problems.

Back Pironkova around 2.00 to 2.20.

Update: Pironkova went a break behind early in the match but immediately broke back and then went a break ahead. She couldn’t keep the lead and she needed a tie break to win the set.
She was poor in the 2nd set but a slight injury for Kostyuk helped Pironkova dominate the 3rd
Pironkova won 7-6, 3-6, 6-3

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run.

The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.

 

Quarter Final

Kasatkina (1.64) v Kudermetova (2.52)

Due to start at 15:30

This will be their first meeting.

Long term, overall win percentages are a little stronger for Kasatkina. Her lead is bigger for matches in the last 12 months. Both players have good indoor results. Kasatkina’s long term indoor results are a lot stronger, Her lead isn’t as big for matches in the last year.

Kudermetova needed a third set tie break in the last round as a very strong pre match favourite. Kamilla Rakhimova was badly undervalued in that match and looked like she was going to edge it towards the end of the match. Kudermetova had a couple of quarter finals indoors towards the end of last season. She reached the second round of this tournament in 2020.

Kasatkina also needed a third set tie break in the last round against Aliaksandra Sasnovich. Sasnovich took the opening set. Both players had problems on serve. Kasatkina was broken 8 times and Sasnovich 9 times. they were both broken 3 times in the deciding set. Kasatkina has struggled on serve this week but her return game has been strong. Last season she reached the semis in Lyon in March. That was her only f=good indoor tournament in 2020 and she lost in the first round in St Petersburg.

I think this will be a long match. We have a very good chance of seeing 3 sets and we can expect a few breaks of serve. I give Kasatkina the edge. She has been in great form this year.

Back Kasatkina around 2.20. Lay the winner of the first set.

Update: Kasatkina made a slow start and lost the opening set easily. She was broken twice in the set. Her stats for the set weren’t terrible but Kudermetova’s first serve was excellent. She hit 86% of first serves in and lost just 3 points on that first serve. In the second set Kasatkina’s serve was very strong. She only lost 5 points on serve. Kudermetova’s serve really started to let her down in that set.
In the deciding set it was a repeat of the second. Kasatkina’s serve wasn’t quite as sharp as it was in the second set but Kudermetova’s didn’t improve at all.
Kasatkina won 1-6, 6-1, 6-2.

If you would like to learn how to make money trading the tennis markets on Betfair take a look at my Tennis Trading Guide