Daily match picks

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WTA Doha
Bouzkova v Mboko 1.52
Due to start at 3 pm
Confidence rating 7.5/10

Mboko 1-0 (July 2025, hard, 3 sets). Hard win %’s favour Mboko.

Bouzkova reached the 2nd round of the Aus Open. 4th Round in Beijing 2025, Semi finals in Monterrey 2025, 3rd Round in Montreal 2025, Title in Prague 2025.

Mboko reached the 4th Round at the Australian Open 2026, Final in Adelaide 2026, Title in Hong Kong 2025, Quarter finals in Tokyo 2025, Title in Montreal 2025.

12 month stats and stats for their last 10 favour Mboko on serve.
Back Mboko around 1.90 to 2.10 and remove liability at 1.60.

Update: Bouzkova served first and held to 15. In the next game, Mboko was broken to 30. I backed Mboko at 2.04.

In the next game, Bouzkova went 15-40 behind. I removed some liability at 1.75. Bouzkova saved one of the break points but was broken on the second one. Mboko’s price dropped to 1.69.

The next 3 games were holds of serve. Bouzkova served at 3-3. She faced a break point. I removed the remaining liability at 1.41.

In the next game, Mboko served with a 4-3 lead. She went 15-40 behind. She saved one of the break points but was broken. Bouzkova followed that up with a hold to 15. Mboko matched that to get to 5-5.

In the next game, Bouzkova went 0-40 behind. She saved the first break point but was broken. Mboko served for the set and held to 30. I hedged at 1.16.

Stats in the first set favoured Mboko but she had given away a break lead late in the set.

Bouzkova served first in set 2. Her serve hadn’t been great up to this point. I waited for her to have her service game before I laid Mboko. She faced a break point but held serve. I laid Mboko at 1.21. I had no liability due to having some profit from the first set.

Mboko was broken to 30. I hedged at 1.38. After that, Bouzkova’s serve was poor and she would not win another game.

Mboko won 7-5, 6-2.

 

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WTA Cluj,
Raducanu v Cirstea 1.81
Due to start at 2:30 pm
Confidence rating 7/10

Raducanu 1-0 (July 2021, grass, 2 sets). Indoor win %’s favour Raducanu.

Raducanu played few indoor matches. She had won 9 of 15. Easy win over Minnen in the 1st round. 2 sets win over Juvan in the 2nd round where she went 0-5 behind before remembering how to play. Easy win over Chwalinska in the q final. She needed 3 sets against Oliynykova in the semi final.

Cirstea lost in the 1st round last year. 2 sets win over Rakhimova in the 1st round. Very easy win over Zidansek in the 2nd round. 2 close sets win over Potapova in the q final. Easy win over Snigur in the semi final.
She had played 1 match indoors in the last 12 months.

This is the only indoor tournament either has played in the last 12 months.
Stats for the tournament favour Cirstea on serve.
Chance of 3 sets. Slight edge to Cirstea.
Lay Raducanu around 1.65 and remove liability at 2.00 to 2.20.

Match prediction: Cirstea in 3 sets.

Update: Cirstea served first and held to 0. In the next game, Raducanu went 0-40 behind. As I was expecting a close match, I laid Cirstea at 1.33.

Raducanu saved the 3 break points. I removed half the liability at 1.50. Raducanu would face and save 2 more break points. She was broken on the 6th break point of the game. In the next game, Cirstea was taken to deuce but held. Raducanu served at 0-3 and faced a break point. She saved it. When she faced another, I hedged for a small loss at 1.20. This time, she was broken.

Raducanu had complained of fatigue after her last match and said she was suffering with a bad cold which was affecting her sleep.

Cirstea had an easy hold to lead 5-0 and broke Raducanu to take the set 6-0.

Raducanu’s stats in that set were terrible. Her first serve % was good at 75% but she won 43% of first serve points and 29% of second serve points. In comparison, Cirstea had a lowish first serve % of 59% but won 80% of first serve points and 71% of second serve points.

I was not keen to lay Cirstea in the second set.

Cirstea served first and held to 0. In the next game, Raducanu was broken again. I need a good reason to turn down the opportunity to lay a player when they are a set and a break behind. Raducanu was barely competing so I stayed out.

In the next game, Cirstea was broken to 0!

Raducanu then had her first hold of serve to get back to 2-2. Cirstea was taken to deuce in the next game but held. I was wondering if I should lay Raducanu if she managed another hold in the next game.

Raducanu was broken to 15.

Cirstea held to 0 to lead 5-2 and she broken Raducanu to 15 to take the set, the match and the title.

Cirstea won 6-0, 6.2.