Daily match picks

Semi Final

Garbine Muguruza (1.40) v Elise Mertens (3.45)

Due to start at 1 pm

Muguruza won their only previous meeting which was at the US Open in 2016. She won in 3 sets on a hard court.

Both players have an excellent overall win percentage. On hard courts Mertens has slightly better long term results. He has also been a little better in the last 12 months. She has won 12 of her 13 matches on hard courts in 2021. Muguruza has won 17 of 21 on hard this season.

Muguruza had not lost a set going into her quarter final with Aryna Sabalenka. She played a superb match to beat Sabalenka in 3 sets. Sabalenka made the better start. She took the only break of serve in the opening set in the fourth game. There were no more break points for either player for the rest of that set. Sabalenka broke the Muguruza serve in the first game of the second set. As often happens when a player goes up by a set and a break her level and intensity dropped a level. Muguruza immediately broke back and also won the next 3 games for a 4-1 lead. She didn’t face another break point for the rest of the set. Sabalenka only faced 1 more break point in the set. In the deciding set it was Muguruza who broke first. Sabalenka broke back straight away but would go on to win just 1 more game.

Mertens lost a set in the first round against Lucky Loser Viktoriya Tomova. She was more comfortable in the next 2 rounds and beat Caroline Garcia and Shelby Rogers in straight sets. She looked down and out in the quarter final against Jessica Pegula. She served for the first set at 5-4 but was broken and lost the set. In the second set she went 2-5 down. She pulled one of the breaks back and when Pegula served for the match at 5-4 Mertens saved 3 match points and went on to win the set 7-5. She took the third set 6-0.

I favour Muguruza to win this match but she won’t have an easy match. Mertens will need to improve her serve. In the first set of the Pegula match she struggled to find the court with her first serve. The serve improved as the match went on. She withdrew from Adelaide with a right shoulder injury. Perhaps as this week has progressed that shoulder has started to give her more issues with her service action.

We need a slow start from Muguruza. Back her if she gets broken first. Three sets won’t be a huge surprise as long as Mertens sorts her serve issues and her shoulder isn’t troubling her.

Update: Muguruza was broken in the first game of the match but she immediately broke back. She held serve and broke the Mertens serve again for a 3-1 lead. She was broken when serving for the set but immediately broke again to take the set.
The second started with 7 holds of serve before Mertens was broken. Muguruza served for the match at 5-3. Once again she failed to serve it out. Mertens held her own serve and broke Muguruza again. She served for the set but was broken and the set went into a tie break. Muguruza Took the tie break 7-5.
Muguruza won 6-4, 7-6.

 

Garbine Muguruza (1.61) v Petra Kvitova (2.6)

Due to start at 3pm.

Kvitova leads their previous matches 4-1. They last met in the Doha final in 2018. Kvitova won that one in 3 sets. She has won all 3 of their hard court matches. Muguruza won indoors at the year end finals in Singapore in 2015.

Overall win percentages on all surfaces are strong for both players but favour Muguruza. She has won 37 of her last 50. Kvitova won 33 of her last 50. Muguruza also has slightly better results in the last 12 months. Both players have excellent hard court results. Muguruza has the smallest of edges and has won 1 more match in her last 50.

Muguruza has dropped just 1 set this week. That was against defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the second round. Maria Sakkari was beaten easily in the quarter final and Victoria Azarenka withdrew from the semi final. She reached the quarter finals last season.

Kvitova has had to work a bit harder for her place in the final. She has dropped just 1 set which was to Anett Kontaveit in the quarter final. She dominated Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the first round. In the semi final Jessica Pegula kept the sets tight and broke Kvitova’s serve 4 times.

Stats for the tournament favour Kvitova for everything except service holds. Muguruza leads that stat 79% v 74%. There is value on Kvitova and this has a great chance of going to a deciding set.

Lay Muguruza around 1.40 and remove some or all of your liability at 1.80. Lay the winner of the first set.

Update: We got our lay price in the third game of the match but Kvitova held serve. She was the first to break and took a 4-2 lead. She won the set with a double break. In set 2 Kvitova was broken in the first game but Muguruza could not hold serve. In fact Muguruza didn’t hold serve once in the second set.
Kvitova won 6-2, 6-1.

I have had a handful of questions in the last few months asking about the advice that I give on this blog and also on Twitter. The most common question is asking if the tips are intended to be backed and left to run. The short answer is “NO”. The slightly longer answer is “HELL NO”. The long answer is that I very rarely leave a back bet to run until the end of the match. I can think of just 2 occasions in the last year. The clue is in the title of the site. The tips are for TRADING.

The aim of the match picks on here and in the Daily Trading Tips emails is to give you a value entry point. After that you need to manage your position. If you have little tennis trading experience here are some simple ways to manage the trade:

Once the price has reached the target price and you have entered your first trade you are waiting for a significant price move in your favour. This can be a break of serve or your player wins the set. Then you should remove some or all of your liability (risk).

If your player does not perform well and gets broken after you have entered the trade then you can exit with a loss.